The tax policy chapter of the ERP is quite interesting, in part because I have a sense of deja vu [1], [2] when reading the cross-country/international sections.
Project Lifeline
Why “Project Lifeline” is unlikely to help the mortgage mess.
International Economics in the 2008 Economic Report of the President
Ignore the newspaper reports about the short term forecasts; that’s old news, since these White House forecasts were made in November (and hence, it’s not fair to compare these forecasts to current forecasts, as has been done in some journalistic accounts). And ignore the chapter on housing markets — there’s not going to be any discussion of how inadequate regulatory oversight (to put it mildly) might have contributed to this debacle. The interesting stuff is in the discussion — or lack of discussion — of certain international economics issues (no Renminbi!).
Economic Report of the President, 2008 [large pdf!]
China’s air pollution
While I’m on the topic of satellite photos of earth, I came across this NASA photo of China:
Sky’s eye over the Arabian Desert
The Oil Drum calls our attention to Satellite O’er the Desert, a website devoted to trying to interpret Google satellite images from Saudi Arabia.
No-doc loans
Just an anecdote, but an interesting one.
Expenditure Switching or Expenditure Reduction Again: How Adjustment Is Occuring
The latest GDP release suggests trade balance adjustment is proceeding. Some of the adjustment is being driven by changes in the dollar’s value. But I think a lot seems to be coming from the reduction in consumption and income growth.
ISM Nonmanufacturing index
Big news yesterday (e.g., WSJ, Abnormal Returns, and Paul Krugman), was the plunge in the January ISM nonmanufacturing business activity index. But what’s it mean?
Predicting recession
Michael Dueker is a senior portfolio strategist at Russell Investments and formerly was an assistant vice president in the Research Department at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. He has been doing some very interesting economic research recently in developing what he calls a Qual VAR model for predicting recessions. We are pleased that he agreed to share some of the current implications of that research with Econbrowser readers, subject to the disclaimer that the content is the responsibility of the
author and does not represent official positions of Russell Investments
and does not constitute investment advice.
How to balance the Federal budget, Bush style, Redux
A year ago, I observed that the Bush Administration was projecting a balanced budget eventually, by assuming away expenditures. We’re in for a replay.
