Open access until 21 January 2025 for the paper in JIMF, paper coauthored with Hiro Ito:
The Declining Driving Miles Intensity of GDP
Trend shifted down, but sensitivity up.
Business Cycle Indicators for October, Including Monthly GDP
Here are key indicators followed by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee (top indicators employment and person income) plus monthly GDP from S&P (nee Macroeconomic Advisers nee IHS Markit):
Ruble Devaluation Giveth and Devaluation Taketh Away
Consider the ruble/yuan exchange rate.
Wages Nominal and Real across the Distribution
Reader Michael writes:
…high income wage growth has grown much faster than medium and low income wage growth patterns.
Policy Uncertainty since the Election
As measured by Baker, Bloom and Davis:
How Much Has the Price Level Risen for Consumers? Seven Measures
The conventionally used CPI-U is in the middle of the pack.
Did Wisconsin Manufacturing Thrive during Trump Trade War 1.0?
A retrospective:
Central Bank of Russia Telegram Account: “Everything will be fine.”
I’m taking the WSJ’s word for it, from the article “Russia’s War Economy Shows New Cracks After the Ruble Plunges”.
Three Measures of Output
GDP, GDO, GDP+: