NFP comes under, 114K vs. 176K consensus. Private NFP also missed, +97K vs. +148K consensus.
Trump Prediction Market Meltdown: COB 1 August 2024
From PredictIt on the Presidential Election Winner, 54 Dem / 48 Rep:
“Yellen Rebuffs Trump Argument on Dollar Hurting US Manufacturing”
That’s a title of an article by Christopher Condon, in Bloomberg a few days ago. What’s the evidence? Figure 1 shows the typically referenced CPI deflated trade weighted dollar.
Updating the “Flip”
GDP Per Capita
Are you better off than you were 4 years ago?
Flip? Prediction Markets at July’s End
For party of winner, 50-50 as of noon ET today (PredictIt):
Inflation Expectations in July (and June)
Michigan is down in July, while business unit costs are up slightly.
VoxEU: “The Russian sanctions and dollar foreign exchange reserves”
From a VoxEU article today, by Robert N. McCauley with Hiro Ito and Menzie Chinn:
Will the freezing of the Bank of Russia’s foreign exchange reserves undermine the dollar’s predominant role in official foreign exchange reserves? This column examines the aggregate evidence since end-2021 for any reduction in the dollar share of official foreign exchange reserves against a baseline constructed with data from 1999 through 2021. The observed dollar share in March 2024 differs little from the out-of-sample projection based on this baseline. On this showing, official reserve managers have not reduced the role of the dollar since the freeze of the Bank of Russia’s assets.
Guest Contribution: “Why have US shares, gold and the dollar been soaring?”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. An earlier version appeared in The Guardian.
Growth in Swing States
As measured by the coincident index, over the last 3 months: