From Real Clear Politics and PredictIt, today:
Some Wisconsin Macro Indicators through February (and Thoughts on the Wisconsin GOP Imagined Recession that Wasn’t)
Coincident index for February out today.
2024 Lampman Memorial Lecture: Susan Dynarski
Guest Contribution: “The Size of Major Currency Zones and Their Determinants”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written Hiro Ito (Portland State University). This web post was posted in RIETI’s columns series.
A Really Very Long Series on the Real Rate
With implications for growth and demographic influences. From Rogoff, Rossi, and Schmelzing (AER, 2024):
2023Q4 GDP Advances in All 50 States; Real Personal Income Declines in 5
From BEA:
An Event Study: News and Trump Media and Technology Group, 4/1/2024
The efficient markets hypothesis indicates that new information should induce a revision to the present discounted value of future dividends, and hence a change in the market value. Apparently news came today.
Explaining the 2022-23 Disinflation Out-of-Sample
In tomorrow’s lecture on the Phillips Curve and the recent inflation surge for Econ 442, I ask whether a modifed Blanchard-Cerutti-Summers (2015) Phillips Curve specification can predict the disinflation. Answer: Yes.
Wisconsin End-of-2023 Surge
From BEA state level data released on Friday. GDP grows 4.2% SAAR, Chained CPI deflated wages and salaries by 1.9%; Year-on-Year, 1.5% and 3.0% respectively. While NFP only grew 0.9% q/q AR, the Philadelphia Fed’s early benchmark measure of NFP grew 1.5%.
The Arrogance of Ignorance
Reader JohnH berates mainstream economists for ignoring the distribution of income while focusing on the average, despite multiple attempts to point out that I’ve talked about median incomes and wages a lot. To wit: