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Econbrowser

Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

MacIver Institute: “The Real Wisconsin Economy”

Michael Lucas comments on July 1st, painting a grim picture of Wisconsin employment. For comparison, here are some other aggregate numbers, including the Philadelphia Fed’s coincident index, released today.

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This entry was posted on July 24, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

CBO: Budgetary and GDP Implications of the Immigration Surge

From CBO report released yesterday.

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This entry was posted on July 24, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Instantaneous Core Inflation

Four out of five measures down:

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This entry was posted on July 23, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

DJT (Trump Media and Technology Group/Nasdaq) As Predictor of Electoral Prospects

Reader pgl points out the recent heightened correlation between DJT (Nasdaq ticker) and Trump’s electoral fortunes.

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This entry was posted on July 23, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

News and Sentiment

A snapshot as of July:

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This entry was posted on July 23, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

“Where’s the Slowdown”

Torsten Slok (Apollo) asks that question today. He summarizes:

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This entry was posted on July 22, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Real Wages Rising in Wisconsin

For all private workers, as well as production and nonsupervisory:

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This entry was posted on July 22, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Alternative Business Cycle Indicators

Most recent forecasts indicate no recession, Q2 nowcasts raised (GDPNow, NY Fed), weekly indicators (Lewis, Mertens, Stock; Baumeister, Leiva-Leon, Sims) growth rates rising, and both NBER BCDC indicators as well as alternative indicators showing positive growth.

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This entry was posted on July 21, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Can One Have a Recession Start When Real Household Wealth Is Rising?

Torsten Slok presents this graph, and writes “The bottom line is that the tailwind to consumer spending for homeowners and equity owners is significant, in particular when combined with record-high cash flows from fixed income.”

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This entry was posted on July 20, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Macroeconomic Implications of Forced Mass Deportation

For whom the bell tolls? Undocumented? Documented but not naturalized? All non-native born?  Native born with both parents undocumented?

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This entry was posted on July 19, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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Current Indicators

Econbrowser faces the data: (since Apr 30,2025)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 6.8 (describes  2024:Q4)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

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