University of Michigan Professor Lutz Kilian, whose research we’ve often highlighted here ([1], [2]), and Michigan Ph.D. candidate Paul Edelstein have an interesting new paper on how energy price changes affect the economy.
Follow up on Housing Permits and Housing Starts: Do Permits “Predict”
In an earlier post on investment, I made the assertion that housing permits led housing starts. This assertion was contested by a number of observers (GWG, rana, spencer, CalculatedRisk). I’ve decided to revisit this question, since clearly, the best characterization of the stylized facts takes on heightened importance given the yesterday’s release, as discussed by Bloomberg:
Northern Ghawar is in decline
If you end up being surprised by the big story of the next decade, you can’t say, “nobody told us.” Instead you’ll have to say, “we didn’t listen.”
Tales from the WSJ Survey of Forecasts
The results of the Wall Street Journal’s recent survey of forecasts were discussed in an article with the curious title “The Economy Is Clawing Back, but Not Much”.
Estimating equilibrium exchange rates: More reasons for humility
Deciding what to worry about
Oops. Or Trade Deficit Stabilization Deferred
The March trade figures are in at BEA, and many are surprised. Bloomberg reports:
Why hasn’t construction employment plunged?
We’re well into a severe housing downturn by every measure except for the number of people working in residential construction.
The Empirics of Chinese Trade and Implications of Yuan Appreciation
In previous posts I’ve discussed some of the estimates of aggregate trade elasticities. Some new work presented at a recent IMF conference on Chinese trade suggests that we may need to revise some of our views on the efficacy of yuan appreciation for inducing expenditure switching.
Can this be true?
Via Captain’s Quarters, in response to the Rasmussen poll question
Did Bush know about the 9/11 attacks in advance?
allegedly 35% of American Democrats answered “yes” and another 26% said they are not sure.
If that’s accurate, America’s system for communicating facts and ideas is seriously broken. I’m wondering if that breakdown might be related to the following dilemma. If you are a liberal elected official or opinion maker who is shown evidence of such massive delusion, do you (a) try to correct it, or (b) try to exploit it?