NFP at +206K vs +191K.
Consensus vs Actual – Real Time Sahm Rule for June [updated]
Bloomberg consensus is 4%. This implies near trigger for the Sahm Rule (in real time):
What If ADP Is Registering the True Employment Growth Rate?
Then instead of 135224 thousand private employment in April, it would be 135509 thousand.
Business Cycle Indicators, July 1st
Monthly GDP up two months in a row. Final sales in May up, but not offsetting completely decline in April. Here’s a picture of key indicators followed by the NBER BCDC, plus monthly GDP from SPGMI (formerly IHS-Markit, and Macroeconomic Advisers before that).
Latest Wisconsin Macro Indicators
Last week we got GDP and wages and salaries for Q1, as well as employment and coincident indicators for May. With these data, we have the following picture.
Guest Contribution: “Central bank Credibility and Institutional Resilience”
Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Christopher A. Hartwell (ZHAW School of Management and Law, Switzerland), and Pierre Siklos (Professor Emeritus at Wilfrid Laurier University; and Balsillie School of International Affairs, Canada).
One Year Ahead Inflation Expectations Stable
With Michigan final June survey out, we have this picture:
Supreme Court Views on Price Stability and Full Employment
In the wake of the SCOTUS decision regarding Chevron deference, I investigate this issue. Here is a summary of academic research on Supreme Court views on these topics, separate from whether fiat money as currently established in the United States as unconstitutional (e.g., see here). I also defer discussion on whether the Federal Reserve is constitutional.
Guest Contribution: “Let China Pay the Cost of Solar Energy and Electric Vehicles”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. An earlier version appeared at Project Syndicate.
Instantaneous PCE inflation in May
PCE hits consensus. Instantaneous (weighted average of m/m inflation, with more recent observations having higher impact) headline and core down.