With Q1 3rd release, along with GDP+, we have the following picture (in levels):
What Do Joseph Stiglitz, George A. Akerlof, Sir Angus Deaton, Claudia Goldin, Sir Oliver Hart, Eric S. Maskin, Daniel L. McFadden , Paul R. Milgrom, Roger B. Myerson, Edmund S. Phelps, Paul M. Romer, Alvin E. Roth, William F. Sharpe, Robert J. Shiller, Christopher A. Sims, and Robert B. Wilson Have In Common?
(1) They all have been awarded The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel, and (2) they oppose Mr. Trump’s economic agenda.
Truly Tariffying: A (Economic Policy) House of Horrors
I was taking a rare vacation trip (most travel is work related for me), when my wife and I decided to enter the haunted house at Tivoli for kicks (last visit, it’d been closed to renovate the wax museum to something new). Well, it wasn’t frightening at all – but that got me thinking: What would be frightening? Here’s my answer:
“Economic Policy in a second Trump term”
Opinion: “An (Almost) Inverted Yield Curve Is Worrying China”
S. Ren in Bloomberg: “It’s getting flatter, prompting worries over an ‘asset famine’ and a prolonged recession.”
Wisconsin Employment Situation: May
The DWD released the May preliminary employment numbers on Thursday (h/t James):
Some Recent Statistics on the Internationalization of the Yuan
COFER data through December 2023:
Chinn, Frankel and Ito: “The Dollar versus the Euro as International Reserve Currencies”
The abstract from article (free access to August 11) forthcoming in the Journal of International Money and Finance [link to ungated working paper version]:
Eswar Prasad: “Top Dollar”
From a just-published article in Foreign Affairs:
June CBO Economic Outlook: Positive Output Gap through 2025
The CBO released an updated Economic Outlook yesterday. Projected PCE inflation is higher, as are budget deficits. First drop in Fed funds rate in 2025Q1. For me, most interesting are the GDP projections, including with respect to potential GDP.
Business Cycle Indicators, Mid-June
Industrial production surprises on upside (0.9% vs. 0.3% m/m), while nominal retail sales increase modestly (0.1 actual vs. 0.3% consensus).