From EJ Antoni (Heritage), article entitled “Coming recession may already have arrived” in the Boston Herald (8/21):
Economic Sentiment and Confidence in August
Conference Board’s Confidence Index exceeds consensus (103.3 > 100.9), with July index revised up. Here’re August readings for confidence, sentiment and news.
Guest Contribution: “Lessons from 85 Years of Movies about Finance”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. An earlier version appeared at Project Syndicate.
Different Counts of NFP Gains
All show gains since January 2023, save the CPS based.
Guest Contribution: “Exchange Rate Models are Better than You Think, and Why They Didn’t Work in the Old Days”
Today, we present a guest post written by Charles Engel, Donald D. Hester Distinguished Chair in Economics at UW Madison and Steve Pak Yeung Wu, Assistant Professor of Economics at UCSD.
Spreads in the Meatpacking Industry: Beef
Here’s the time series on beef farm-to-wholesale spread, in 1982-84$.
A Puzzle: Private NFP and the Preliminary Benchmark vs. Current Official
The ADP survey cumulative increase in private NFP since 2023M03 is 3.1mn, more than the 2.8mn reported in the current official CES series.
Manufacturing in Recession?
Preliminary benchmark revision takes down March employment by 0.9%. Here’s a picture of various series relevant to the manufacturing sector.
The Preliminary Benchmark Revision in Context
818 downward revision in March 2024 NFP.
Recession before the Election?
I see a bevy of economists (a lot on the right, see here) saying we’re in a recession, or soon to be in one. What do predictive models say?