So, my impression that things are warming up is not just me…
Guest Contribution: “Occupations and Responses to Social Security Retirement Policy”
Today we present a guest post written by Lindsay Jacobs, Assistant Professor at the Robert M. La Follette School of Public Affairs, at the University of Wisconsin, Madison.
Guest Contribution: “A Monthly Series of U.S. Household Income Data”
Today we present a guest post written by Matías Scaglione and Romina Soria, co-founders of the data science and economic consulting firm Motio Research. This post offers a concise introduction to a new monthly series of U.S. household income data officially launched by Motio Research in December 2023.
Business Cycle Indicators, end-February 2024
Personal spending comes in at consensus, personal income above. Here’s a picture of key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee plus monthly GDP.
GDP, Est’d GDO, GDP+
With the second release for GDP, we have the following picture of aggregate output:
Real Wage Growth, thru January 2024
From BLS today:
Guest Contribution: “Six Explanations for Misperceptions Regarding the Strong Economy”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate.
The UK in Recession? Expected or Unexpected?
With two quarters of GDP decline in the UK according to the current vintage of data, it’s reasonable to ask if the UK is in recession. ONS discusses the limitations of using the two-quarter rule of thumb here. Figure 2 of this study illustrates the dangers of relying upon the two-quarter rule when the GDP data are subject to revision. See additional discussion using the “technical” definition, AP, CNN, Bloomberg. It’s also of interest to consider whether statistical methods relying on financial indicators would have predicted a recession, variously defined.
CFNAI for January, WEI for mid-February
Economic growth slightly below trend.
Fed funds vs. Spreads in Recession Prediction
Reader Bruce Hall notes the correlation between Fed funds rate peaks and recessions, as a counterpoint to my use of spread inversions.