While (final) sentiment as measured by the University of Michigan survey remains surprisingly downbeat given observables, the decline needs to be put into context.
One Year Ahead Inflation Expectations for May
May’s final numbers from the U.Michigan survey are out. Here’s the picture of several one-year-ahead expected inflation rates.
Southwest Border Encounters, thru April
The title at Zerohedge screams “Illegals Believe Trump Is Going To Win So They’re Surging The Border Now”. I looked for data, but found none, so I checked CBP:
PLAN Exercises around Taiwan
From NYT:
‘gone in a hundred days’
That’s a prediction from Peter Navarro, on Chairman Powell’s fate in a new Trump Administration.
More, on the Dollar
At the same time as the Fed-NY Fed Dollar conference, the Atlanta Fed had a conference on financial markets.
Private and Total Nonfarm Payroll Employment: CES, QCEW, BED Early Benchmark, ADP
How certain are we about private NFP growth? Some worries from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) through December.
How Well Is Wisconsin Doing Macroeconomically?
At the beginning of April. Wisconsinites’ views on the state’s economy were fairly downbeat, despite some positive indicators [0]. On possible explanation is the perception of the economy’s state differs from respondent’s own conditions. Another possibility is that we have mismeasured the economy’s conditions.
Gotland Two Years Ago, Two Hundred Years Ago, and Now
Day 2 Third Conference on the International Roles of the U.S. Dollar
The program continued on from yesterday (full agenda here). Sessions included papers on theoretical modeling of CIP deviations, the effect of swap line announcements on asset prices gleaned from high frequency data and new data on over the counter fx transactions. Once again a tremendous learning experience for me.