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Econbrowser

Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

Confidence, News and Sentiment in May

While (final) sentiment as measured by the University of Michigan survey remains surprisingly downbeat given observables, the decline needs to be put into context.

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This entry was posted on May 24, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

One Year Ahead Inflation Expectations for May

May’s final numbers from the U.Michigan survey are out. Here’s the picture of several one-year-ahead expected inflation rates.

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This entry was posted on May 24, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Southwest Border Encounters, thru April

The title at Zerohedge screams “Illegals Believe Trump Is Going To Win So They’re Surging The Border Now”. I looked for data, but found none, so I checked CBP:

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This entry was posted on May 23, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

PLAN Exercises around Taiwan

From NYT:

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This entry was posted on May 23, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

‘gone in a hundred days’

That’s a prediction from Peter Navarro, on Chairman Powell’s fate in a new Trump Administration.

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This entry was posted on May 22, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

More, on the Dollar

At the same time as the Fed-NY Fed Dollar conference, the Atlanta Fed had a conference on financial markets.

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This entry was posted on May 22, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Private and Total Nonfarm Payroll Employment: CES, QCEW, BED Early Benchmark, ADP

How certain are we about private NFP growth? Some worries from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) through December.

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This entry was posted on May 22, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

How Well Is Wisconsin Doing Macroeconomically?

At the beginning of April. Wisconsinites’ views on the state’s economy were fairly downbeat, despite some positive indicators [0]. On possible explanation is the perception of the economy’s state differs from respondent’s own conditions. Another possibility is that we have mismeasured the economy’s conditions.

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This entry was posted on May 22, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Gotland Two Years Ago, Two Hundred Years Ago, and Now

Two years ago:

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This entry was posted on May 22, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Day 2 Third Conference on the International Roles of the U.S. Dollar

The program continued on from yesterday (full agenda here). Sessions included papers on theoretical modeling of CIP deviations, the effect of swap line announcements on asset prices gleaned from high frequency data and new data on over the counter fx transactions. Once again a tremendous learning experience for me.

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This entry was posted on May 21, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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Recent Posts

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Current Indicators

Econbrowser faces the data: (since Apr 30,2025)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 6.8 (describes  2024:Q4)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

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