At the beginning of April. Wisconsinites’ views on the state’s economy were fairly downbeat, despite some positive indicators [0]. On possible explanation is the perception of the economy’s state differs from respondent’s own conditions. Another possibility is that we have mismeasured the economy’s conditions.
Gotland Two Years Ago, Two Hundred Years Ago, and Now
Day 2 Third Conference on the International Roles of the U.S. Dollar
The program continued on from yesterday (full agenda here). Sessions included papers on theoretical modeling of CIP deviations, the effect of swap line announcements on asset prices gleaned from high frequency data and new data on over the counter fx transactions. Once again a tremendous learning experience for me.
Day 1 Third Conference on the International Roles of the U.S. Dollar
It was a real pleasure to get to attend the conference (agenda here). Incredibly informative and stimulating — sometimes I think I know a lot about a subject, but conferences like this disabuse me of that notion.
I add links to ungated versions of the papers presented today, below:
Fed Board: “Why is the U.S. GDP recovering faster than other advanced economies?”
An extensive Board article released on Friday:
Eric Hovde Predicts
recession, stock market decline, and housing market decline. From December 19th (Newport Beach Independent):
- Economic Slowdown: The U.S. is likely to enter a recession, with consumers expected to deplete their savings, leading to only one potentially positive GDP quarter in 2024.
One Year Ahead Inflation Expectations
April and May inflation was overpredicted by year-ahead consumer-based surveys.
CNY Overtakes CAD in FX Trading, CB Reserve Holdings in 2022
Talking about the dollar as an reserve currency next week [2], and noticed these interesting trends.
Private Nonfinancial Debt-Service-Ratio
In yesterday’s post, I noted a recession forecast based on a probit specification incorporating a debt-service-ratio yielded a substantially lower probability for 2024M05 than a plain vanilla specification. Part of why this is true is that the debt-service ratio is fairly low, despite high Treasury yields.
Expect More Houstons
From Bloomberg: