Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Christopher A. Hartwell (ZHAW School of Management and Law, Switzerland), and Pierre Siklos (Professor Emeritus at Wilfrid Laurier University; and Balsillie School of International Affairs, Canada).
One Year Ahead Inflation Expectations Stable
With Michigan final June survey out, we have this picture:
Supreme Court Views on Price Stability and Full Employment
In the wake of the SCOTUS decision regarding Chevron deference, I investigate this issue. Here is a summary of academic research on Supreme Court views on these topics, separate from whether fiat money as currently established in the United States as unconstitutional (e.g., see here). I also defer discussion on whether the Federal Reserve is constitutional.
Guest Contribution: “Let China Pay the Cost of Solar Energy and Electric Vehicles”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. An earlier version appeared at Project Syndicate.
Instantaneous PCE inflation in May
PCE hits consensus. Instantaneous (weighted average of m/m inflation, with more recent observations having higher impact) headline and core down.
Business Cycle Indicators, end-June
Nominal PCE slightly below consensus (+0.2% vs. +0.3%). Here are some key business cycle indicators followed by NBER BCDC, with real personal income ex-transfers flat (along with real consumption)
“Food costs doubled, tripled, quadrupled…”
That’s Mr. Trump on inflation. Here’s the data:
“44th International Symposium On Forecasting | Dijon, France”
International Institute of Forecasters’ Conference starting on June 30th. I wish I had the chance to attend again this year.
Northern Hemisphere Land Temperatures, June-May, through 2024
From NOAA:
Deceleration: Three Measures of Output and a Measure of Aggregate Demand
With Q1 3rd release, along with GDP+, we have the following picture (in levels):