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Econbrowser

Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

Quotes that Should be Remembered Forever

From March 2020:

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This entry was posted on March 25, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

February 2024 Wisconsin Economic Outlook Forecast

Released today. Continued growth in employment, GDP, based on national trends and outlook from SPGMI (report here).

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This entry was posted on March 25, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Measuring Fed Inflation Credibility

What do households (not economists) think inflation will be in three years? I use the deviation of forecast from target as a proxy measure for credibility regarding inflation.

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This entry was posted on March 25, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Why Is Wisconsin Construction Booming?

Residential or nonresidential?

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This entry was posted on March 24, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Guest Contribution: “Monetary Policy Reaction to Geopolitical Risks: Some Nonlinear Evidence”

Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution by Jamel Saadaoui (University of Strasbourg) and William Ginn (LabCorp, Artificial Intelligence).


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This entry was posted on March 24, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Conference Board Revises 2024 Outlook Up

…to 1% y/y [1]. Their Leading Economic Indicator edges up slightly [2]. Justin Ho discussed their brightening view on  Friday’s Marketplace.

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This entry was posted on March 23, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Wisconsin Employment in February: Continued Growth

Employment still outstripping the November Wisconsin DoR forecast, based on SPGMI national outlook.

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This entry was posted on March 22, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Economic Report of the President, 2024

Released today, full text available here.

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This entry was posted on March 21, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Are You Better Off Than You Were 4 Years Ago

Per capita GDP relative to 1st quarter of new administration:

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This entry was posted on March 21, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Republican Study Group Proposals

Text here.

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This entry was posted on March 21, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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Recent Posts

  • GDP Nowcasts as of 6/20
  • Industrial and Manufacturing Production, Real Retail Sales – Business Cycle Indicators
  • A Cost-Push Shock?
  • Tariffs and Consumer Prices at High Frequency
  • Slowdown? Business Cycle Indicator Data as of Mid-June

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Current Indicators

Econbrowser faces the data: (since Apr 30,2025)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 6.8 (describes  2024:Q4)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

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