Heritage Foundation’s EJ Antoni writes on X (August 2):
Over the last year, native-born Americans have LOST 1.2 million jobs while foreign-born employment has increased 1.3 million; we’re just swapping out American workers at this point, not growing the pie for everyone…
Core PPI 0.0% m/m vs +0.2% consensus (+2.4% y/y vs. +2.7% consensus). Here’s a picture of instantaneous core measures.
If you’re wondering about a recession by the time the election rolls around…
Me, interviewed with Buzz Kemper, on BadgerTalks, recorded on 8/6 (Episode 44).
Last one for August (from Survey of Professional Forecasters).
Pascal Michaillat (UCSC) and Emmanuel Saez (UC Berkeley) say 40% probability, yes. From the abstract to the paper:
Continued growth:
My transcription of JD Vance’s statement re: the Fed, on “State of the Union”, interviewed by Dana Bash today. Might’ve gotten a few words wrong, but got the essence I think.
As reported by the Rosstat, via TradingEconomics:
Lewis/Mertens/Stock and Baumeister/Leiva-Leon/Sims weekly indicators, and Torsten Slok’s rundown.