So much for a manufacturing renaissance, post-“Liberation Day”.
Manufacturing Value Added Flat
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“The International Monetary System, the PBoC and the RMB, Fragmentation & Decoupling, Fragmentation and Inflation”
Those are some of the topic areas of this year’s NBER International Seminar in Macroeconomics, which took place in Split, Croatia.
Bob McCauley: “Downgrading Uncle Sam, not America”
In McCauley’s VoxEU post (first of three), he presents a pictorial depiction of exorbitant privilege:
GDP Nowcasts as of 6/20
NY Fed, St. Louis Fed, GS tracking:
Industrial and Manufacturing Production, Real Retail Sales – Business Cycle Indicators
With industrial production, we have the following picture of series the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee focuses on:
A Cost-Push Shock?
Oil prices jump:
Tariffs and Consumer Prices at High Frequency
The recent undershooting of consensus CPI and PPI has been taken to mean that tariffs have not yet had an impact on prices (e.g., NYT). First, an interesting picture from Truflation:
Slowdown? Business Cycle Indicator Data as of Mid-June
With SPGMI’s monthly GDP, we have the following picture of series the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee focuses on:
Has Trade Policy Uncertainty Decreased a Lot?
Yes, but only because it was so extremely high recently.
Some Basic Math on Why I Think the Recession Likelihood Is Greater than 30%
Goldman Sachs has reduced the probability of recession in the next 12 months to 30%, from 35%, and earlier 45% (Reuters). It’s important to note that these projections are conditional on the path of future policies — which in these times are less clear than ever.