Christiane Baumeister and Lutz Kilian presented an interesting paper at the Brookings Institution last week that takes a detailed look at the effects on the U.S. economy of the dramatic oil price decline of 2014-2015.
Updated 9/20 to reflect BLS state level employment data
The Kansas Department of Labor released some limited numbers regarding August labor market conditions today. These figures are consistent with an economic stall indicated in the Philadelphia Fed projections, discussed in this post.
The Philadelphia Fed’s indices indicate economic contraction in June and July. Leading indices indicate further contraction, by a percentage larger than any other state.
Commenting on the Kansas Palmer Drought Severity Index, Rick Stryker writes: “From a theoretical point of view it must be stationary.” He reasons that this is so, because it is bounded between -10 and +10. Question: Is this a relevant piece of information when examining finite samples? Let’s look at consumption as a share of GDP, which must be bounded between 0 and 1.
Quick links to a few items I found interesting.
How to — and not do — time series analysis