Here’s the data through 7/9:
Copper, Bolsonaro (Coffee): Predict Trade Policy Uncertainty for 7/10
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GDP Impact of 87.5K Removals/Yr
From Orrenius et al. (2025), GDP growth is down 0.81% in 2026, 0.49% in 2027.
When “Liberation Day” Replaces “Infrastructure Week” Replaces “Groundhog Day” ™…
Trump on TruthSocial (Bloomberg):
“TARIFFS WILL START BEING PAID ON AUGUST 1, 2025. There has been no change to this date, and there will be no change”
Business Fixed Investment ex-IIP and Policy Uncertainty
A picture (or two) is worth a thousand words:
Real Time Civilian Employment past Peak?
There’s a view that civilian employment (household series) peaks before nonfarm payroll employment (establishment series). If true, then time to worry.
The Age of Angst? Macro Implications
Source: NYT, July 6, 2025.
The OBBB alters the path of deficits relative to current law by a substantial amount, but not too much relative to current policy. However, the composition of overall spending and taxes is altered considerably relative to both current law and current policy. Relative to current law:
Trade Policy Uncertainty before July 9
Measured trade policy uncertainty, from Baker, Bloom and Davis, and Caldara, Iacoviello, Molligo, Prestipino, and Raffo:
Manufacturing Employment, Hours Down
So the sector overall looks like it’s in the doldrums:
Central Bank Gold Holdings
A World Gold Council headline “Central bank gold buying picks up in May”.
Final Sales to Private Domestic Purchasers Nowcasts Decelerate
Atlanta Fed downgrades Q2 (GS ups from 0):