From the April WSJ survey:
Wall Street Economists Prognosticate: Trade Deficit, Recession Dating
13 Replies
Soybean Prices on the Eve of the US-China Trade Deal
Why haven’t they risen?
Data Sources, Again [Updated]
[Updated to include CoRev’s analysis of trends 4/16/2019] I have repeated requests for raw data used in this post, part of which is plotted in this graph. Reader CoRev writes:
…Menzie has admitted he mis-attributed his full range of sources used, and has yet to provide ALL the data he used.
This is not true. I didn’t admit mis-attribution. All I can conclude is that there is some confusion over terms.
Guest Contribution: “The Euro area: Are member countries similar enough to share the same currency?”
Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Virginie Coudert (Banque de France and CEPII), Cécile Couharde (EconomiX-CNRS, University of Paris Nanterre), Carl Grekou (CEPII and EconomiX-CNRS), and Valérie Mignon (EconomiX-CNRS, University of Paris Nanterre, and CEPII). This blog post reflects the opinions of the authors and does not necessarily express the views of the institutions to which they belong.
Forward Rate Bias over a Third of a Century
Just updated/cleaned and extended the survey and forward rate data used in Chinn and Frankel (2019) (discussed in this post). Here are preliminary results regard forward rate bias, both pre- and post-crisis.
Data Sources [Updated]
[Updated to include Corev’s analysis of trends 4/16/2019] Recently, in response to my posting a graph of the most recent nonfarm payroll data, Reader CoRev wrote:
Can you provide the raw data used?
This request came despite the fact that the graph states explicitly:
I Spent a Couple Trillion Dollars, and All I Got Was Trend Employment Growth! [Updated]
[Updated to include CoRev’s analysis of trend 4/16/2019] Reader JBH writes:
“Employment has done marvelously well under this president.”
Why Is the Structural Budget Deficit Blowing Up Since Trump?
The structural, or cyclically adjusted, budget balance has been deteriorating. In accounting terms, what’re the drivers?
When the Textbook Is Right: Implications of the Trump Fiscal/Trade Regime
Today we learned that through March, the Federal budget deficit was 15% larger than the corresponding point in the last fiscal year — as expected given a not particularly stimulative tax cut (so much for tax cuts paying for themselves, as Stephen Moore claimed) and the ending of spending restraints. The dollar remains at elevated levels, as interest rates have risen. The trade deficit, excluding petroleum, continues to deteriorate. As I explained to my macro class today… it’s all textbook (notes).
Trade Policy Uncertainty and World Uncertainty
If measured world uncertainty shocks cause decelerating economic growth, then Trump will be partly responsible for the global slowdown the IMF is forecasting.