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Reminders: Logs, Chain-Weights, Confidence Intervals, Data Footnotes, Data Revisions, and Stereotypes

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Notes for my students:

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This entry was posted on June 27, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Nowcasts and Forecasts

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of GDP, along with current Gross Domestic Output (average of GDP and GDI):

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This entry was posted on June 27, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

One Year Ahead Inflation Expectations as of End-June

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Year-on-year CPI headline inflation is expected to be lower as of a year from now, ranging from 4.2% to 6.8%.

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This entry was posted on June 26, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Why We Don’t Call Recessions on the Basis of Petroleum Use

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Reader Steven Kopits writes:

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This entry was posted on June 25, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

So You Think We Might Be In a Recession Today (Part II)?

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Look around at enough indicators (say vehicle miles traveled) and you might think so.  A follow up to this post. Let’s look at what conventional and high frequency indicators say.

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This entry was posted on June 25, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

In Memory of Robert Haveman

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Robert Haveman, a prime force behind the establishment of the La Follette School of Public Affairs, passed last week. Today, Tim Smeeding, a longtime friend, colleague,  co-author and student of Bob Haveman, shares some thoughts on this occasion.


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This entry was posted on June 24, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Some Random Graphs and Links

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For reference:

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This entry was posted on June 23, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Graphically Taking the Quantity Equation Literally

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A tautology:

MV ≡ PQ

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This entry was posted on June 23, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Advanced Country Headline Inflation Rates – May 2022

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High inflation not just in the US:

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This entry was posted on June 23, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

“Neither model could identify this effect as different from 0.”

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Key phrase buried in the Appendix to the Badger Institute‘s study entitled: “Unemployment (Over)compensation: How the federal supplemental unemployment benefits impacted unemployment during the pandemic” (April 2022).

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This entry was posted on June 22, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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  • Business Cycle Indicators, July 1st
  • Term Spread Models for Recession by June 2023
  • Inflation, May 2022
  • GDP, GDO, and Seasonally Adjusted vs. Not Seasonally Adjusted
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Econbrowser faces the data: (since April 29, 2021)

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