Lewis, Mertens, Stock Weekly Economic Index (WEI) is down 1.1 ppts, while Baumeister, Leiva-Leon, Sims Weekly Economic Conditions Indicator (for deviation from trend growth) is down 0.7 ppts.
We would’ve gotten Q3 advance GDP yesterday, and September personal income and outlays today, ordinarily. What indicators do we have for the state of the macroeconomy? Here’s one: delinquincies on auto loans (for pools of asset backed securities).
Data from Pew, for average marketplace benchmark plans, per month:
Per Bloomberg. Hmm. Commitment to 12 mn metric tons (MMT) “this year” (calendar, market?).
Given we’re unlikely to get a CPI release for October…
That’s the AIER Everyday Price Index ™ in September:
Figure 1: CPI all urban (blue), Everyday Price Index (tan), and CPI for limited service restaurants (green), all in logs, 2025M01=0. CPI for limited service restaurants seasonally adjusted by author using X-13. Source: BLS, AIER, and author’s calculations.
Up 2.3% in log terms.
From ” A Quantitative Analysis of the Effects of the Government Shutdown on
the Economy Under Three Scenarios, as of October 29, 2025″:
Both Michigan Sentiment and CB Confidence declined in October.
Contingency funds are available to fund SNAP disbursements for at least part of November. OMB Director Vought’s unprecedented decision to prohibit use of these funds will have macro implications (I eschew any moral or ethical judgments in this discussion), especially if the government shutdown continues.
Eleven states for GDP, ten for employment: