Notes for my students:
Reminders: Logs, Chain-Weights, Confidence Intervals, Data Footnotes, Data Revisions, and Stereotypes
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Nowcasts and Forecasts
of GDP, along with current Gross Domestic Output (average of GDP and GDI):
One Year Ahead Inflation Expectations as of End-June
Year-on-year CPI headline inflation is expected to be lower as of a year from now, ranging from 4.2% to 6.8%.
Why We Don’t Call Recessions on the Basis of Petroleum Use
Reader Steven Kopits writes:
So You Think We Might Be In a Recession Today (Part II)?
Look around at enough indicators (say vehicle miles traveled) and you might think so. A follow up to this post. Let’s look at what conventional and high frequency indicators say.
In Memory of Robert Haveman
Robert Haveman, a prime force behind the establishment of the La Follette School of Public Affairs, passed last week. Today, Tim Smeeding, a longtime friend, colleague, co-author and student of Bob Haveman, shares some thoughts on this occasion.
Some Random Graphs and Links
For reference:
Graphically Taking the Quantity Equation Literally
Advanced Country Headline Inflation Rates – May 2022
High inflation not just in the US:
“Neither model could identify this effect as different from 0.”
Key phrase buried in the Appendix to the Badger Institute‘s study entitled: “Unemployment (Over)compensation: How the federal supplemental unemployment benefits impacted unemployment during the pandemic” (April 2022).