The First Year Project is a multi-year, non-partisan effort to (1) Examine the history and structure of presidential First Years, (2) Assess the policy opportunities and threats for our next President, and (3) Influence the national debate by addressing candidates, opinion leaders, and the public.
Kansas nonfarm payroll employment rose 4,200 (0.3%) from January to February, and fell 400 (0%) relative to February 2016. In both cases the change was not statistically significant. In contrast, Missouri NFP rose 3,500 (0.1%) over the last month, and 54,000 (1.9%) over the last year.
The UK Office of National Statistics released revised figures for GDP and investment today. What can we glean from these numbers?
The way in which the Federal Reserve controls the short-term interest rate today is completely different from the way things worked ten years ago. I was looking for a good description of how the current system works and couldn’t find one, so decided to write my own.
We all know that the CBO has been under assault over the recent scoring of the AHCA (14 million reduction in coverage by 2018, 26 million by 2026; relatively unchanged by recent amendments), with allegations that their previous projections have been “wrong”. I document in this post that CBO macro projections have been comparable to Blue Chip averages, in terms of accuracy (mean bias, RMSE’s). In terms of the issue at hand, here is a graph depicting various vintages of CBO projections of reduction in uninsured.
That’s the title of a new EconoFact memo written by me:
Nearly 70 percent of rural votes cast in the 2016 election went to Donald Trump. This phenomenon has been attributed in part to the declining fortunes of farmers. But rather than helping reverse this trend, several of the Trump administration’s policy proposals would negatively affect the fortunes of the agricultural sector by depressing the prices received by farmers, reducing the demand for American agricultural exports, and raising production costs. Moreover, that portion of the agriculture budget aimed at supporting farm prices and incomes is likely to be squeezed to accommodate the increase in defense spending.