Big positive numbers for growth — but remember the level matters.
Business Cycle Indicators, June 26th
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GDP Nowcasts, June 26th
- GDPNow 6/26 -39.5%
- NY Fed nowcast 6/26 -16.3%
- St. Louis Fed 6/26 -38.14%
- IHS 6/26 -35.3%
GDP Now estimates over time:
Some reasons why nowcasts differ, by Jim Hamilton.
“The US and China in the global order: the role of the dollar and tensions with China”
Yesterday, I had the pleasure of joining a virtual panel sponsored by the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (IMFIF), is think tank covering central banking, economic policy and public investment.
The South Is Hot
In terms of Covid-19 challenges. From Goldman Sachs today:
IMF World Economic Outlook, June Update Forecast
Today, the IMF released an extensive update to its April forecast, incorporating substantial downward revisions to forecasted growth.
Recession/Recovery and Covid-19
Just released – results from the 3rd round of the IGM/FiveThirtyEight survey – growth paths and downside risks
Guest Contribution: “The effectiveness of macroprudential policies and capital controls against volatile capital inflows”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Jon Frost (Bank for International Settlements), Hiro Ito (Portland State) and René van Stralen (De Nederlandsche Bank). The views expressed represent those of the authors, and do not necessarily represent those of De Nederlandsche Bank, or any other institutions the authors are affiliated with.
Updated Wisconsin Economic Outlook
Just released (even as the Trump administration retains its January forecast), Wisconsin Economic Outlook June update. Employment is now forecasted to rise, at a higher level than earlier predicted. The implied pace of employment growth is almost the same as in May.
“Kung Flu” in (Recent) Historical Perspective
On the 38th anniversary of Vincent Chin’s murder. From Politico:
President Donald Trump’s top spokesperson on Monday defended his use of the term “kung flu” to describe the novel coronavirus has sickened millions across the globe, asserting that the president was merely trying to emphasize the virus’ place of origin in China.
…
“The president does not believe that it is offensive to note that this virus came from China,” McEnany said Monday when asked about Conway’s condemnation of the term.
How Many Fatalities Will Governors and Localities Accept?
The shape of the recovery, when it comes, depends on the answer.
New cases are rising in some counties. Those counties account for a substantial share of US GDP.