Do You Feel Lucky?

The Administration rolled out a new trade strategy yesterday (The President’s 2017 Trade Policy Agenda, part of this document). Like many things the Administration has put forward, it is heavy on rhetoric, light on policy specifics. That being said, if the Administration pursues a trade agenda that invites trade retaliation, while implementation of stimulative macro policies (e.g., infrastructure investment, tax cuts) are delayed, then we may very well get an economic slowdown before a boom.

Continue reading

Guest Contribution: “Identifying State-Level Recessions”

Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Jason Brown, Senior Economist and Regional Executive at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. This post is based on the article by the same title. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the positions of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City or the Federal Reserve System.


Continue reading