The trend in real median weekly earnings looks different depending on deflator.
Category Archives: labor market
Guest Contribution: “Gauging Recessions with the Jobs-Workers Gap”
Today, we are fortunate to present a guest contribution written by Paweł Skrzypczyński, economist at the National Bank of Poland. The views expressed herein are those of the author and should not be attributed to the National Bank of Poland.
When Lacking Policy Proposals, Attack Diversity
Glick, Leduc, Pepper: “Will Workers Demand Cost-of-Living Adjustments?”
That’s the title of a recent SF Fed Economic Letter, by Reuven Glick, Sylvain Leduc, and Mollie Pepper.
Households are currently expecting inflation to run high in the short run but to remain muted over the more distant future. Given this divergence, what role do short-run and long-run household inflation expectations play in determining what workers expect for future wages? Data show that wage inflation is sensitive to movements in household short-run inflation expectations but not to those over longer horizons. This points to an upside risk for inflation, as workers negotiate higher wages that businesses could pass on to consumers by raising prices.
So You Think We’re In a Recession as of Beginning August
We’re roughly a month into Q3. Here’s a view, written a week ago:
…based on the indicators I track, yes, I think we are in continuing recession, and I expect a hard reset of the economy in H2.
So You Think We’re In a Recession as of End-July – UI Initial Claims Edition
Some observers argue the rise in unemployment insurance claims signals we are in, or soon to be, in a recession (e.g., [1]). Here’s an alternative view (A follow up on “So you think we might be in a recession today” Part I, Part II, Part III, Part IV, Part V, Part VI, as well as “So you think we might be in recession as of mid-June”, Part I and Part II, and “So you think we might be in a recession as of mid-July”.)
NFP Growth of over 500K in Historical Perspective
Reader Rick Stryker writes:
It’s a good thing that Mitt Romney didn’t criticize the Biden economy by saying that we should be seeing 500K job increases, because that would have triggered another multi-year rant from Menzie that that’s IMPOSSIBLE!!!
So You Think We’re in a Recession as of Mid-July?
Employment situation release data for July, and Weekly data and Google/big data through July 29th, on the US economy (follow up on Part I, Part II, Part III, Part IV, Part V, Part VI, as well as “So you think we might be in recession as of mid-June”, Part I and Part II) – a rejoinder to a reader’s view expressed (yesteroday!yesterday – [my mistake – MDC]) “based on the indicators I track, yes, I think we are in continuing recession, and I expect a hard reset of the economy in H2.”
Inflation Adjusted Wages since the Pandemic
Inflation exceeds average hourly earnings in the aggregate (private sector) and for Leisure and Hospitality Services (production and nonsupervisory). But they are still ahead of 2020M02 levels.
“Prosperity: Crises, Debt & the Future of American Economic Policy”
That’s the name of the economic session at the La Follette Forum on American Power, Prosperity and Democracy. A video of this panel is available through Youtube. Here are some recounting and thoughts on the panel discussion.