We’re roughly a month into Q3. Here’s a view, written a week ago:
…based on the indicators I track, yes, I think we are in continuing recession, and I expect a hard reset of the economy in H2.
Category Archives: labor market
So You Think We’re In a Recession as of End-July – UI Initial Claims Edition
Some observers argue the rise in unemployment insurance claims signals we are in, or soon to be, in a recession (e.g., [1]). Here’s an alternative view (A follow up on “So you think we might be in a recession today” Part I, Part II, Part III, Part IV, Part V, Part VI, as well as “So you think we might be in recession as of mid-June”, Part I and Part II, and “So you think we might be in a recession as of mid-July”.)
NFP Growth of over 500K in Historical Perspective
Reader Rick Stryker writes:
It’s a good thing that Mitt Romney didn’t criticize the Biden economy by saying that we should be seeing 500K job increases, because that would have triggered another multi-year rant from Menzie that that’s IMPOSSIBLE!!!
So You Think We’re in a Recession as of Mid-July?
Employment situation release data for July, and Weekly data and Google/big data through July 29th, on the US economy (follow up on Part I, Part II, Part III, Part IV, Part V, Part VI, as well as “So you think we might be in recession as of mid-June”, Part I and Part II) – a rejoinder to a reader’s view expressed (yesteroday!yesterday – [my mistake – MDC]) “based on the indicators I track, yes, I think we are in continuing recession, and I expect a hard reset of the economy in H2.”
Inflation Adjusted Wages since the Pandemic
Inflation exceeds average hourly earnings in the aggregate (private sector) and for Leisure and Hospitality Services (production and nonsupervisory). But they are still ahead of 2020M02 levels.
“Prosperity: Crises, Debt & the Future of American Economic Policy”
That’s the name of the economic session at the La Follette Forum on American Power, Prosperity and Democracy. A video of this panel is available through Youtube. Here are some recounting and thoughts on the panel discussion.
Real Wages
Reader JohnH confidently asserts:
Average Hourly Earnings, 2000-2022M02
Were wages flat during the Obama administration? Did they rise appreciably faster in the first three years of Trump (as asserted by this commentator)? 30 seconds of data retrieval reveals the answer is “no”.
“Though wages are rising, inflation is winning the race”
That’s the title of a NPR report.
Neoclassical Labor Supply Reduction, Labor Demand Decline, or Disequilibrium in Wisconsin
I see constant references to labor shortages in the Wisconsin economy (e.g, [1]). I think it’s important to understand the word “shortage” is not being used in the sense that a neoclassically trained economist would use the term.