The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 3.3% annual rate in the fourth quarter. That growth brings the level of GDP 3.1% above the value a year ago. Those numbers are right at the historical average GDP growth over the last 70 years of 3.1%, and well above the 2% average over the last 20 years. The year 2023 ended up far better than many people expected.
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Re-Post: “Distributional Data from the National Income and Product Accounts”
Reader JohnH is surprised that BEA reports distributional NIPA data, despite having commented on a blogpost on the subject two and a half years ago (he commented three times!)
In an unmentioned recent development, BEA is actually providing data on income distribution, something which should be of interest to macro students.
Given that some folks do not remember what they’ve read and commented on, I re-post, with link to updated information.
WisGOP Can’t Count
Teaching Macro 2024
First time teaching undergrad macro (elective, after intermediate macro) in three years, so I thought time to revise the syllabus (Econ 442) to account for new issues (compare against Fall 2001).
EV and Hybrid Sales, thru December
EV’s flat. Hybrids up. From Kevin Drum.
The Atavistic Component of Republican Economic Sentiment as Overall Sentiment Jumps
One of the mysteries of recent times has been the divergence between conditions (say, as measured by the Misery Index) and measured consumer sentiment. Figure 1 shows the U.Michigan sentiment index (FRED variable UMCSENT) vs. the sum of inflation and unemployment rates over the 2016-24M01 period. The jump in UMCSENT of 9 was about 2 standard deviations (for the 2016-23 period), on top of the nearly two deviation jump in December, and goes some way to redressing the gap.
The Wisconsin Economic Situation
WMC has a survey of 180 member firms out indicating only 22% of respondents believed that the Wisconsin economy is strong.
“Soft Landing, Hard Landing, or Financial Crisis?”
That’s the title of a panel discussion at AEI with With Steven B. Kamin moderating, and Jason Furman, Julia Coronado, Nathan Sheets and Desmond Lachman participating.
Four Forecasts and Two Nowcasts
Nowcasts are outstripping forecasts. For now.
GDP Trajectory: The View from Wall Street
The mean forecast trajectory keeps on rising as actual GDP outcomes keep on surprising on the upside (Q4 mean growth rose from 0.9% to 1.7% q/q AR since October), but forecasts are pretty dispersed, as shown in Figure 1.