Some commentators have focused on the sharp declines in civilian employment as well as the ISM services employment diffusion index as signaling greater weakness than suggested by the establishment survey.
The Employment Release and Business Cycle Indicators
NFP growth surprises on the upside (see discussion here), but combined with downward revisions in October and November, we’re just at about the consensus level. Here’s the picture of some key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, plus monthly GDP and GDPNow.
Six Measures of NFP Employment
NFP growth beats Bloomberg consensus by 46K (private NFP by 36K). Looking at several measures of NFP (total, private) suggests continued growth.
Monthly GDP Instantaneous Inflation vs. Core PCE
GDP at 1.5%, PCE at 1.8%.
Still Waiting for the Recession, Weekly Data through 12/30
Through the year’s end, Year-on-Year growth is accelerating modestly, according to the WEI.
Is Velocity Stable? Part MXXVI
Courtesy of CFS, here is M4 Divisia velocity (rescaled to 1967Q1=1):
Business Cycle Indicators at the Start of 2024
November monthly GDP is reported by S&P Global Market Insights, up 0.2 ppts, 2.6% annualized. Here’s the picture of some key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, plus monthly GDP and GDPNow.
Deviation of Instantaneous Inflation from Target
For CPI, CPI core, PCE deflator, PCE core deflator:
Gasoline Prices thru 1/3 (updated – nominal and real)
From GasBuddy:
Foreign Term Spread Augmented Recession Model Prediction
Ahmed and Chinn (2023), coauthored with Rashad Ahmed, accepted at JMCB. The US and Foreign 10yr-3mo inversion remain deep (although not as deep as in March when last I posted).