Today, we’re fortunate to have Willem Thorbecke, Senior Fellow at Japan’s Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI) as a guest contributor. The views expressed represent those of the author himself, and do not necessarily represent those of RIETI, or any other institutions the author is affiliated with.
China GDP Growth in Q3
Q/Q was 1.3% vs. consensus 1%.
Mean and Median Cumulative Wage Growth
Inflation has not kept with wage growth over the last year.
The GDP Outlook: Now and Near Future
The October WSJ forecast survey is out. The mean forecast is for no downturn (no 2-quarter negative growth). It’s also a lot higher than three months ago.
Inflation: Known Unknowns
In my MJS article on inflation, I wrote:
Business Cycle Indicators, Mid-October
Industrial and manufacturing production surprise on the upside (0.3% m/m vs. 0.1% consensus, 0.4% vs. 0.1% respectively), with August growth revised up. Here is a picture of key indicators followed by the NBER BCDC as well as monthly GDP (SPGMI) and GDPNow (at 5.4% q/q SAAR as of today).
“The inflation surge is over. Now we’ll see if interest rate increases cause recession.”
From the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel today (title not mine):
Inversions, Bear Steepening Dis-Inversions, and Recessions
Does it matter if spreads are dis-inverting because short yields are falling, or long yields are rising? MacKenzie and McCormick (Bloomberg) say yes. With long yields rising…
CPI Inflation in September: Instantaneous Headline, Core & Headline Median and Trimmed Mean
A bump up except instantaneous core.
IMF October WEO
From intro to the WEO: