Mark Sobel, former Treasury Deputy Assistant Secretary, Executive Director at the IMF, current US Chair of OMFIF and senior adviser at the CSIS , presented his views on the future of the international monetary system on Tuesday. The video is now available, here.
Guest Contribution: “Gauging Recessions with the Jobs-Workers Gap – April 2023”
Today, we are fortunate to present a guest contribution written by Paweł Skrzypczyński, economist at the National Bank of Poland. The views expressed herein are those of the author and should not be attributed to the National Bank of Poland.
Art and Music Friday on Econbrowser
Billionaire Crow and the acolytes (it’s apparently not a photo, but a piece of photorealism):
Weekly Macro Indicators through End-March
Here’re some indicators at the weekly frequency for the real economy.
Private NFP Growth Predicted using ADP Data
Using the correlation between log first differences for BLS nonfarm payroll employment and ADP, I get the following prediction or “nowcast” for the BLS number to be released tomorrow:
Guest Contribution: “Inflation in the euro area: A view from the price level”
Today, we’re pleased to present a guest contribution by Laurent Ferrara (Professor of Economics at Skema Business School, Paris and Director of the International Institute of Forecasters).
Coincident Index, Monthly GDP, and GDP+
The divergence between performance recorded by primarily labor market indicators (in the coincident index for February released today) and output based indicators persists.
Business Cycle Indicators as of April’s Start
We’ll see if it’s the cruelest month. For now, monthly GDP continues to grow in February, albeit slowly (0.2% m/m) while January growth was revised up.
Oil Prices, Fed Funds Path Up
Spreads, Breakevens, and Risk/Uncertainty as of End-March
Buffeted by SVB, income and spending, and PCE releases.