The 10yr-3mo term spread is remarkably synchronized for some large advanced economies.
US-Euro Area Price Level and Inflation Differentials: I(0), I(1), Segmented Trends?
Do you calculate inflation differentials using … inflation or price levels? Follow up on this debate from a bit over a year ago.
The Labor Market – Bargaining Power, Wages, Inflation
From WPR yesterday, UW Madison experts:
World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects, June 2023
The world economy still “in a precarious state”. The comprehensive analysis, written by the team headed by Ayhan Kose, is here.
May 2023 Inflation: Various Measures, Horizons
Headline m/m +0.1% vs. +0.2% Bloomberg consensus, core at +0.4% at consensus. Here are several measures on a month to month basis (annualized).
FT-Booth School June Survey of Macroeconomists: Recession Start in 2024
2023 q4/q4 growth relatively unchanged. Modal guess for recession start date moved to 2024Q1-Q2 (survey results here; FT article).
Almost Three Quarters of a Century of the Plain Vanilla Term Spread Recession Model
If you were interested.
Plain Vanilla Term Spread Model Based Recession Probabilities
Here is a picture of recession probabilities from probit regressions on 10yr-3mo and 10yr-2yr term spreads, in light of Cam Harvey’s updated views.
The Wisconsin Economic Outlook: Downturn Delayed (but Not Erased)
The Wisconsin Department of Revenue’s Economic Outlook May forecast came out yesterday. As the US outlook (from S&P Global Market Insights, formerly Macroeconomic Advisers and IHS Markit) has improved, so too has that of Wisconsin.
Are Imports a Leading or Contemporaneous Indicator of Recession?
Answer: Yes, and (to a lesser extent) Yes.