From the November Wisconsin Economic Outlook (released December 13):
The Coming Macro Shock of 2023: China
As Paul Krugman notes,
“[Chinese President] Xi has abruptly ended his signature “zero Covid” policy, with all indications pointing to a huge surge in hospitalizations and deaths that will stress health care to the breaking point; the Chinese economy seems set to face major problems over the next two or three years”
Guest Contribution: “The Global Economy as of End-2022”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate.
Month-on-Month PCE Deflator Inflation: Has the Regime Switched?
Core PCE inflation was at consensus, 0.2% m/m. Are we in a new inflation regime?
Christmas Eve Eve Business Cycle Conditions
Consumption flat, at expectations. We now have the following picture of key indicators followed by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee.
GDP 3rd Release, GDO, GDP+, GDPNow etc.
Here’s the picture: revisions up in Q3 GDP, and GDP+. Note that GDP+ indicates no downturn in 2022H1.
Weekly Macro Indicators thru 12/17/2022
Weekly indicators from Lewis-Mertens-Stock (NY Fed) Weekly Economic Indicators, and Baumeister, Leiva-Leon and Sims WECI and Woloszko (OECD) Weekly Tracker through 12/17, released today.
Guest Contribution: “Boosting carry with equilibrium exchange rate estimates”
Today we are fortunate to present a guest post written by Michal Rubaszek (SGH Warsaw School of Economics), Joscha Beckmann (FernUniversität Hagen and Kiel Institute for the World Economy) Michele Ca’ Zorzi (ECB), and Marek Kwas (SGH Warsaw School of Economics). The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the institutions they are affiliated with.
“I acknowledge that it shows that the increase in multiple job holders is insufficient to account for the material part of increased jobs per the Establishment Survey”
Yet More on Adjusting the CES, Private Nonfarm Payroll
Looking at not seasonally adjusted and seasonally adjusted private employment from CES vs. QCEW and ADP.