Here’s industrial production (Fed, Miron-Romer) index during the 1920-21 recession, as reader Steven Kopits thinks this is the template for a conjectured current ongoing recession (or incipient – the conjecture keeps on changing).
Reminder: “Recession” Is Not the Same as “People Are Unhappy”
Reader Steve Kopits, after again asserting that VMT, gasoline consumption, GDP all imply recession in H1 2022, writes as his clinching argument “And apparently, the public is none too enamored of macro indicators, either, given recent polling heading into November.” I agree, the public is not terribly happy, as evidenced by say the U Michigan Sentiment indicator. But that’s not to say we’re in a recession.
Kathryn Dominguez at EconoFact: “Global Repercussions of the Strong Dollar”
From the memo :
Two Days before GDP Q3 Release: What Remains of the 2022H1 Recession Thesis?
Monthly indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, plus GDP and GDO, plus IHS-Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) monthly GDP:
3.9% and 3.9%: China y/y and q/q GDP Growth
After several days’ worth of delay, NBS released Q3 GDP, 3.9% y/y and q/q (not annualized), vs. 3.4% and 3.5% Bloomberg consensus (thereby ending the suspense). This is the picture, using an index.
“How is that trap working out?”
That’s the question a skeptical JohnH asked 7 weeks ago, about the Ukrainian offensive. The answer seems to be “pretty well”.
How Do You Know Where You’re Going If You Don’t Know Where You Are? (China Statistics Edition)
A question becoming increasingly relevant as China cuts back on statistical releases. From Burn-Murdoch at FT:
Nowcasting and More: “The 24th Federal Forecasters Conference”
The Federal Forecasters Consortium conference took place a month ago, but the video links are now up,
- Morning announcements and Fred Joutz Retrospective (Fred discussion starts at 17:50) [slides]
- Invited Panel Session Dr. Baoline Chen (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis), Dr. Neil Mehrotra (U.S. Department of the Treasury), Dr. Jason Schachter (U.S. Census Bureau), moderated by Neil R. Ericsson (Federal Reserve Board).
- Special Afternoon Session: Simple vs. Complex Chaired by Kevin Dubina. “Thinking through the pros and cons” by Anne Morse; “Evidence from Forecasting Competitions” by Neil R. Ericsson; “Why do projections?” by Maria Hussain
Evaluating “Recession Fears”
It seems that recession is imminent, according to some accounts (60% in 10/14 Bloomberg panel, 63% in the WSJ October survey, 100% in the Wong/Winger model). WaPo “As recession fears rise, Washington begins to weigh how to respond”. What do some models say about recession and growth?
Weekly Macroeconomic Activity through 10/15
As measured by NY Fed WEI, OECD Weekly Tracker, and Baumeister, Leiva-Leon and Sims WECI.