Today, we’re pleased to present a guest contribution by Laurent Ferrara (Professor of Economics at Skema Business School and Board Member of the International Institute of Forecasters).
Balance of Forces, Kherson Oblast on 31 October 2022
As of 23:00 hrs (GMT+2) on 10/31 (Militaryland.net):
Natural Gas and LNG Exports vs. Goods Exports
Statistics through 2022Q2 – rapid growth in natural gas exports but from small base. LNG exports contribution to change in goods exports quantitatively trivial.
Guest Contribution: “The Fed’s swap lines: Narrow circle, broad effect?”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Joshua Aizenman (University of Southern California).
LNG Contribution to Goods Exports (Balance of Payments Basis)
How Long the Dollar Upswing?
One of the seminal empirical exchange rate papers is Charles Engel‘s and Jim Hamilton‘s “Long swings in the exchange rate: are they in the data and do markets know it?” (AER, 1990). Think about it – while one often can’t reject the null hypothesis of a random walk in the exchange rate (using typically low-powered tests), the typical floating exchange rate sure doesn’t look like a random walk. What does a Markov switching model applied to the US broad trade weighted real value of the US dollar (instead of bilateral against Deutsche mark, French franc, British pound).
The External Environment and Prospects for GDP Growth
As noted by Jim in his post on the 2022Q3 GDP release, exports and imports accounted (mechanically) for more than 100% of 2022Q3 GDP growth:
Guest Contribution: “Why Do Americans Vote for the Extremist Party?”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. An earlier version appeared at Project Syndicate and LA Times.
Not a recession … yet
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 2.6% annual rate in the third quarter. That’s close to the historical average (3.1%), and is a welcome sequel to the two quarters of falling GDP with which we started the year.
Continue reading
On the Eve of the Q3 GDP Release: Coincident Index and GDPNow
Jim will have more in a few hours, but for now, here is GDPNow as of 10/26, compared to monthly GDP (as of October 4), and the Philadelphia Fed Concident Index.