Atlanta Fed GDPNow at 4% q/q in Q4.
The “Trap” Closes: Kherson, 11/11/2022
Remember the question a skeptical JohnH asked on 9/2/2022, about the Ukrainian offensive? Here’s the answer:
Prediction Markets on Control of the Senate: 11/11/22
Looks like the betting is on Democratic control.
Trend CPI Down?
M/M headline vs. core vs. trimmed mean vs. median:
CPI Inflation below Expectations – Markets Respond
M/M CPI inflation 0.4% vs. Bloomberg consensus 0.6%, while core was 0.3% vs. 0.5%. All measures (m/m, q/q, y/y, headline/core) below recent peaks.
Prediction Market on Senate Conrol: Democratic at 93%
By simple addition of bets on 50 seats or less for Republicans — at 1030am Eastern Time, from PredictIt:
Real Median Weekly Earnings: CPI vs. Chained CPI
The trend in real median weekly earnings looks different depending on deflator.
Oil Prices, Gasoline Prices
Oil prices are down, and futures are in backwardation. Gasoline prices are also (way) down from June peaks.
Reminder: Using the “Two-Consecutive-Quarter Rule” There Is No 2001 Recession
At least as of now. But at end 2003, there was. But not as of January 2002.
A Measure to Reduce Inflation, Accelerate Potential Growth
Fix this gap: