Reader Steven Kopits writes:
So You Think We Might Be In a Recession Today (Part II)?
Look around at enough indicators (say vehicle miles traveled) and you might think so. A follow up to this post. Let’s look at what conventional and high frequency indicators say.
In Memory of Robert Haveman
Robert Haveman, a prime force behind the establishment of the La Follette School of Public Affairs, passed last week. Today, Tim Smeeding, a longtime friend, colleague, co-author and student of Bob Haveman, shares some thoughts on this occasion.
Some Random Graphs and Links
For reference:
Graphically Taking the Quantity Equation Literally
Advanced Country Headline Inflation Rates – May 2022
High inflation not just in the US:
“Neither model could identify this effect as different from 0.”
Key phrase buried in the Appendix to the Badger Institute‘s study entitled: “Unemployment (Over)compensation: How the federal supplemental unemployment benefits impacted unemployment during the pandemic” (April 2022).
When People Who Don’t Understand Basic Time Series Analysis Try to Talk Time Series Analysis
From 2019, pay special attention to CoRev’s statistical analysis (at the end):
Guest Contribution: “A Resilience Case for International Trade”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate.
How Have Wisconsin Goods Exports Fared since 2018
I’m giving a presentation on what determines Wisconsin exports. Here’s an interesting finding – since 2018, real goods exports have underperformed what would’ve been expected based on rest-of-world GDP and the real value of the US dollar.