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Econbrowser

Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

Why We Don’t Call Recessions on the Basis of Petroleum Use

Reader Steven Kopits writes:

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This entry was posted on June 25, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

So You Think We Might Be In a Recession Today (Part II)?

Look around at enough indicators (say vehicle miles traveled) and you might think so.  A follow up to this post. Let’s look at what conventional and high frequency indicators say.

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This entry was posted on June 25, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

In Memory of Robert Haveman

Robert Haveman, a prime force behind the establishment of the La Follette School of Public Affairs, passed last week. Today, Tim Smeeding, a longtime friend, colleague,  co-author and student of Bob Haveman, shares some thoughts on this occasion.


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This entry was posted on June 24, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Some Random Graphs and Links

For reference:

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This entry was posted on June 23, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Graphically Taking the Quantity Equation Literally

A tautology:

MV ≡ PQ

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This entry was posted on June 23, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Advanced Country Headline Inflation Rates – May 2022

High inflation not just in the US:

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This entry was posted on June 23, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

“Neither model could identify this effect as different from 0.”

Key phrase buried in the Appendix to the Badger Institute‘s study entitled: “Unemployment (Over)compensation: How the federal supplemental unemployment benefits impacted unemployment during the pandemic” (April 2022).

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This entry was posted on June 22, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

When People Who Don’t Understand Basic Time Series Analysis Try to Talk Time Series Analysis

From 2019, pay special attention to CoRev’s statistical analysis (at the end):

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This entry was posted on June 22, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Guest Contribution: “A Resilience Case for International Trade”

Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy  School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate.


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This entry was posted on June 22, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

How Have Wisconsin Goods Exports Fared since 2018

I’m giving a presentation on what determines Wisconsin exports. Here’s an interesting finding – since 2018, real goods exports have underperformed what would’ve been expected based on rest-of-world GDP and the real value of the US dollar.

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This entry was posted on June 21, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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Current Indicators

Econbrowser faces the data: (since Apr 30,2025)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 6.8 (describes  2024:Q4)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

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