The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 6.9% annual rate in the fourth quarter, more than twice the average growth rate the U.S. has seen since World War II.
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Inflation Breakeven, TIPS and Term Spreads
Given the indications of tightening in the Fed’s statement today – both on rates and tapering – it’s surprising how little inflation breakeven moved. On the other hand, 5 year TIPS jumped 13 bps.
“Foreign Direct Investment under Uncertainty”
From the conclusion to NBER WP No 29687 (paper), coauthored with Caroline Jardet and Cristina Jude (both Banque de France):
Bitcoin, VIX, and Expected Inflation
Bitcoin’s lost half its value since its recent peak. Could one explain this one’s students, quantitatively? First take a look at the the correlation with the most commonly discussed factor in the recent episode – risk.
Data Sources Compendium [Updated]
Update of The Data Will Set You Free (in preparation for a new semester!)
Inflation: US vs. Euro Area and UK
We hear a lot about how expansionary US policy has led to accelerated inflation. Is that inflation much faster than what occurred in other regions? Consider the US, Euro Area and UK 3 month annualized consumer inflation rates (calculated as log differences).
Wisconsin Employment in December
DWD released December figures today.
EconoFact at Five
Tomorrow, January 20th, EconoFact celebrates its 5 year anniversary, providing non-partisan, incisive analyses on timely and important economic and social policy issues. It does so by bringing to the public debate the expertise of leading economists and social scientists via memos and podcasts.
“Covid Impact and Macroeconomic Policy in Asia”
That’s the title of a presentation at the ASSA meetings (YouTube video of the presentation is here) in the ACAES panel “Covid and Recovery in Asia” (see below). Calla Wiemer presented, and I discussed. [Updated 1/19, links to slides added]
Employer Power in Labor Markets, Measured
In recent exchange [1], some exhibited skepticism that monopsony power exists in labor markets. A recent article documents evidence that manufacturers exhibit such power. From Yeh (2022):