From Lu Wang, “There’s an upbeat signal…” Bloomberg (Jan 18, 2023):
A Note on Comment Moderation
If are to include a link to a YouTube video in your comment, please be aware that it might take me an extended time period for me to get around to publishing said comment (if ever at all). I need to check the content of the video, and sometimes (like when teaching is underway, etc.), time is at a premium. Videos from an established media outfit (Reuters, Bloomberg, NY Times, WSJ, CNN, etc.) are not subject to this proviso.
“Inflation begins to slow, signaling lower costs for consumers”
My colleague Kenneth West did a long interview on inflation, interest rates, and recession, on Wisconsin Public Radio’s Central Time on Monday [audio]
Business Cycle Indicators as of Mid-January 2023
With the release of December 2022 industrial production (-0.7% vs. -0.1 Bloomberg consensus, m/m), we have the following picture of business cycle indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, along with IHS Markit monthly GDP:
Recession Tales from the WSJ January Survey?
Here’s the outlook for GDP:
Demographic Variations in Inflation Expectations
Not only is there variations across surveys of different groups, there are variations across groups within households.
Market Expectations on Fed funds, Spreads, Inflation post-CPI Release
Lower on Fed funds at February meeting. Don’t see much movement on spreads, despite talk of a pivot, and the possibility of a soft landing.
More on an Inflation Regime Switch
Is core CPI inflation in a new regime? Results using a Markov switching model (pioneered by James Hamilton).
December 2022 CPI
Here are the levels of headline and core CPI, versus forecasts and nowcasts.