I asked this question to my friend and prominent academic economist Yuriy Gorodnichenko. Here were his answers for three of the places to which he’s been making financial contributions:
Recession Talk
Andrew Sorkin et al. mention “mixed signals” regarding the prospects of recession. I thought it useful to plot some indicators. First, standard term spreads and one credit spread.
Vehicle Miles Traveled and Fuel Consumption
Gasoline prices have hit a new (nominal) high. The impact on the driving and the economy depends in part on the intensity of use of gasoline and diesel.
The Times We Live In
From WaPo:
Sen. Mike Braun (R-Ind.) said Tuesday that he would be open to the Supreme Court overturning its 1967 ruling that legalized interracial marriage nationwide to allow states to independently decide the issue.
He later revised and extended his remarks.
Guest Contribution: “Surprisingly Strong Sanctions”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate. Also available as a podcast.
Recession, Inflation – What’s the Market View?
The economy is still likely to grow, according to at least the 10yr-3mo spread. Less definitive indicator from the 10yr-2yr. Expected inflation rates have stopped moving up, and so too have implied future rates 2-3 months ahead; in fact they’ve both fallen in recent days. (For what analysis, rather than markets, think about inflation, see Jim’s Monday post; on recession, see Jim’s Wednesday post.
Sanctions, energy prices, and the world economy
Oil sanctions and recession
After a wild ride up to $130 a barrel, the price of oil has come back down to its level from before Russia invaded Ukraine. Russian oil may be finding buyers despite the sanctions, and U.S. production continues to recover. But the situation remains very uncertain, and a big disruption in the quantity of Russian oil that reaches world refineries is a very significant possibility. In my previous post, I examined the causes of the run-up in the price of oil that had already occurred before the invasion and discussed the implications for U.S. inflation. Today I comment on the possible implications of further supply disruptions for U.S. real GDP.
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Oil prices and inflation
The price of oil has doubled from its value a year ago and could increase much more if there are significant reductions in the quantity of Russian oil that reaches world refineries. This is the first in a series of two posts on what these events could mean for the U.S. economy. Today I focus on the implications for inflation, and in a follow-up post I will discuss implications for real GDP.
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Wisconsin Employment and GDP: Actual and Outlook
The Wisconsin Department of Revenue released its February Economic Outlook on Monday.