Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Jongrim Ha (Senior Economist), M. Ayhan Kose (Chief Economist and Director) and Franziska Ohnsorge (Manager) from the World Bank’s Prospects Group. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this blog are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the World Bank, its Executive Directors, or the countries they represent.
Messages from the (Bond) Market
Today, the CEA published a blogpost on how the administration’s infrastructure and Build Back Better plans won’t be inflationary. I think it’s of interest to see how the market (which will undoubtedly turn out to be wrong) thinks inflation and output will evolve.
Video tour of Mars
From NASA.
Finding Your (Academic) Roots
There’s a nifty website where you can trace out the intellectual lineage of your favorite academic (or not so favorite, as the case may be). Here’s mine:
GDP at Risk? (update)
An increasing amount of GDP is accounted for by counties with rising fatalities, a slight change from a couple weeks ago.
How Long Can Florida’s Economy Grow with the Governor’s Current Public Health Measures Stance?
Actually, I should write “Anti-Public Health Measures Stance”… The CDC released the ensemble forecasts of 8/16 yesterday.
The Wisconsin Employment Situation in July
Employment numbers for July were released for today.
Forecaster Views on the Overheating Hypothesis
Earlier in the year, one fear was that excessive fiscal stimulus would push up inflation, push up long term yields. Professional forecasters don’t seem to view that outcome as imminent.
X-Files, 2021 Edition
It seems every decade or so, there is a bout of paranoia about government statistics, to wit, a reader asserts the BLS is hiding data on median wages:
The Outlook – The August Survey of Professional Forecasters
Growth prospects decelerate, while the CPI level looks higher, according to the August Survey of Professional Forecasters.