The simple sum of the unemployment rate and the (y/y) inflation rate:
Real Hourly Earnings in May
unadjusted for composition:
Some More Correlations on Mass Shootings in the United States
Estimating through end-May, regressions of mass shooting casualties, and mass shooting events:
Business Cycle Indicators at June’s Start
With the release of monthly GDP today, and income and consumption earlier, we have the following picture of series followed by the NBER BCDC.
Guest Contribution: “The Price of Property Rights: Institutions, Finance, and Economic Growth”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Ron Alquist (Senior Economist and Policy Advisor, Financial Stability Oversight Council), Benjamin R. Chabot (Knowledge Leader, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago), and Ram Yamarthy (Senior Economist, Office of Financial Research, U.S. Treasury). The views expressed in this blog post are the authors’ own and do not necessarily represent those of the Financial Stability Oversight Council, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, the Federal Reserve System, the Office of Financial Research, or the U.S. Department of Treasury.
Composition of Central Bank Holdings, 1965-2021
Estimated and reported:
Guest Contribution: “Get Ready for ‘Reverse Currency Wars'”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate.
Some Time Series Data on Mass Shootings
Assault weapons ban and Trump effects.
You Can Easily Get Low Inflation If You *Really* Want To
What Did Other Term Spreads Do? And What Does the US Spread Mean for Foreign Economic Activity?
As noted in the post by Rashad Ahmed, foreign yield curve developments helped predict US growth. What did those spreads do? And, turning the question on its head, what does the US spread mean for those economies’ recession prospects?