Today, we are fortunate to present a guest contribution written by Laurent Ferrara (Professor of International Economics, SKEMA Business School, Paris, and Chair of the French Business Cycle Dating Committee).
Financial Market Signals, Post-FOMC
Higher rates soon, long term inflation expectations anchored, and on term spread signals growth (as do real rates).
Guest Contribution: “The Fed Needs at Least Four More 50 Basis Point Rate Increases in 2022 to Get Back on Track”
Today, we present a guest post written by David Papell and Ruxandra Prodan, Professor and Instructional Associate Professor of Economics at the University of Houston.
Seminars on Economic Forecasting
Econbrowser has hosted lots debates about how to forecast. For people who want to learn how forecasting is done, here are two series I’ve been made aware of.
- International Institute of Forecasters Chair, Laurent Ferrara
- HO Steckler Program on Forecasting Director, Tara Sinclair
The IIF’s next session is with Mike McCracken (St. Louis Fed) on “On the real-time predictive content of financial conditions indexes for growth” (May 10). The HO Steckler Program’s two speakers are Juhee Bae (University Of Glasgow) “Forecasting With Partial Least Squares When A Large Number Of Predictors Are Available” (May 5), and Renee Fry-McKibbin (ANU) “Measuring Global Interest Rate Comovements with Implications for Monetary Policy Interdependence” (May 12).
I’m sure I’m missing many others, so suggestions welcome.
And since I’m doing a public service ad, here’s the link to economics data sources, so even if you don’t want to do econometrics, at least you can look up the data yourself to see if your preconceived notions are validated or not (i.e., don’t believe your typical ZeroHedge post..).
The Dollar as a Reserve Currency
Still number 1 (through 2021Q4), with rising shares to … AUD, CAD, and the CNY…
Monthly GDP and Other Business Cycle Indicators
With the release of IHS-Markit monthly GDP, we have the following graph of key indicators noted by NBER BCDC.
Sovereign Debt Crisis or Oil in the Euro Area Recession of 2011-13
Conventional wisdom (sovereign debt crisis and austerity measures) or oil as cause? Steven Kopits says oil:
The cause of a brutal recession in Europe during Q4 2011 – Q1 2013 remains unexplained in policy circles. Or more precisely, the proposed explanation is less than compelling. … oil prices once again returned to high levels, with Brent regularly in the $100 – 115 range. With this, oil consumption in both the US and Europe began to decline, and such declines in oil consumption due to high prices — normally characterized as an oil shock — invariably leads to recession. … to suggest a Greek financial crisis could cause a recession in Europe is not entirely convincing. Greece’s GDP is all of 2% of that of the EU. It would be like a financial crisis in Indiana taking down the US economy. Conceivable, but it does not jump out at you.
Remarkable Things People Say
In this case, one person. Steven Kopits writes:
4. The US is immune to an oil shock on paper as we are ostensibly energy independent in oil. We’ve seen this play out before. US oil consumption declined from June 2011 to December 2012 — 18 months — without the US falling into recession, something which is historically unprecedented in modern times. By contrast, Europe fell into a steep recession during this period — Q4 2011 through Q1 2013.
Term Spread Models and Recession Probabilities for April 2023
Worries about recession are rising:
Some Observations on the Q1 GDP Release
Following up on Jim’s post, some additional comments on the Q1 GDP growth surprise of -1.4% SAAR; GDPNow was 0.4%, while IHS-Markit was -0.6% (and was way below Bloomberg consensus of 1.1%). What to take from this?