That’s the title of a NPR report.
Oil Price Forecasts: DoE EIA vs. Futures
Forecast as of 3 March, and confidence intervals implied by options.
Inflation in February
Oil prices were on the rise before the invasion, so gasoline prices were up. Headline m/m ticked up, core down. We are below peaks for month-on-month, even if you hear about 40 year highs (on year-on-year).
The Gasoline Intensity of US GDP
Gasoline prices hit new (nominal) highs. But the usage of gasoline per unit GDP (and in absolute terms) has declined since 2008.
The Ruble: Convertible No Longer
From Anders Aslund at Project Syndicate:
And on March 8, the central bank decided to stop exchanging rubles for foreign currencies, which means that the ruble is no longer convertible.
Recession? The Term Spread over the Past Four Recessions
Employment in February
Russian GDP Prospects Visualized
Goldman Sachs cut its 2022 growth estimate from 2% to -7%. I visualize the level of GDP thus:
“Cabaret of Shadows”
A chamber opera with music by Laura Schwendinger, libretto by Ginger Strand, in Houston this weekend.
Market Implied Expected Rates
Interestingly, if implied forwards are to be believed, the Fed won’t be raising rates too fast.