From “GS Economic Indicators: China CAI Falls to -11% in April”:
Business Cycle Indicators, Mid-May
With the release of industrial production (1.1% m/m vs. 0.5% Bloomberg consensus; mfg 0.8% vs. 0.4% consensus), we have the April reading for another key indicator followed by the NBER BCDC.
Worst Statistical Analysis I Have *Ever* Seen (linked to by Mr. Bruce Hall)
This is a reprint of a post from 2020.
(And I have seen a lot of terrible analysis) [Update 8/14/2020: the author has taken down the post, but here is an archived 8/13/2020 version of the webpage]
Reader Bruce Hall recommends links to this article which asserts that 2020 is not anomalous in terms of deaths. In fact, it’s 20th out the last 21 years!
China Economic Sitrep
Industrial output, manufacturing down. Retail sales down.
Short Term Treasury Yields, according to the SPF
Up, up and away. But that’s been true in the past too.
Survey of Professional Forecasters May Survey Results in Perspective
Drop in GDP trajectory, rise in inflation expectations, and expected long rates up.
“Drill, Baby, Drill” 2022 Edition
Back in the more innocent days of 2010, we had Sarah Palin – “Drill, baby, drill” (more innocent because folk were just circulating doctored photos of President Obama, instead of threatening to kill elected officials). Now, we have a new chorus of people asserting that allowing more permitting would relieve gasoline price pressures. Well, from the Dallas Fed (courtesy of Bruce Hall), some text in plain English.
Financial Market Signals
Five year inflation breakeven shrinks, ten year – three month spread dives, TIPS and expected real rates rise above zero. The S&P500 and Bitcoin falls even as VIX remains at sub-Trump levels.
Long Horizon Unbiasedness, Updated
Some key interest differentials, through March:
Different Measures of Consumer Inflation
Official, chained, sticky price, 16% trimmed, and (for March) PCE deflator.