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Econbrowser

Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

Financial Market Signals

Five year inflation breakeven shrinks, ten year – three month spread dives, TIPS and expected real rates rise above zero. The S&P500 and Bitcoin falls even as VIX remains at sub-Trump levels.

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This entry was posted on May 14, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Long Horizon Unbiasedness, Updated

Some key interest differentials, through March:

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This entry was posted on May 12, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Different Measures of Consumer Inflation

Official, chained, sticky price, 16% trimmed, and (for March) PCE deflator.

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This entry was posted on May 11, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Inflation-Disinflation-Deflation Illustrated

Yesterday, a discussion on Marketplace (w/Justin Ho) about how these terms fit together. In order to explain, consider a broad price index (e.g., CPI). Then one can illustrate these concepts graphically:

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This entry was posted on May 11, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Year-on-year vs. Month-on-month inflation for Headline, Core

Dramatic plunge in headline CPI m/m inflation, but both headline and core surprise on upside.

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This entry was posted on May 11, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Inflation Adjusted Wages since the Pandemic

Inflation exceeds average hourly earnings in the aggregate (private sector) and for Leisure and Hospitality Services (production and nonsupervisory). But they are still ahead of 2020M02 levels.

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This entry was posted on May 8, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Guesstimating the US-Euro Area Core Inflation Differential in April

April HICP numbers are out for the Euro Area. The US reports April CPI on Wednesday. Using the Cleveland Fed’s nowcast for April core (0.52% m/m vs. Bloomberg consensus 0.4%), we have the following picture.

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This entry was posted on May 8, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

US-Euro Area GDP Performance Pre/During Pandemic

We now have Q1 GDP for the US and Euro Area. While US inflation as measured by CPI/HICP is higher than Euro Area (US core accelerating relative to EA by 0.7 ppts since the pandemic), US GDP growth has also been higher.

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This entry was posted on May 7, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Five Year Inflation Breakeven, Estimated Expected Inflation, and Oil

Five year inflation breakevens have risen tightly with oil prices, while accounting for inflation and liquidity premia implies a more gradual albeit more steady increase in implied expected inflation.

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This entry was posted on May 6, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Business Cycle Indicators and Employment

With the release of April employment (428K > 391K Bloomberg consensus), we have the following graph of key indicators noted by NBER BCDC.

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This entry was posted on May 6, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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Recent Posts

  • US FX Intervention Thus Far in the Argentine Peso…
  • IMF World Economic Outlook October Forecast Out
  • Weekly Indicators of Economic Growth
  • Some Business Cycle Observables [updated]
  • Irony of Ironies: Trump’s War on the Big Mac

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Current Indicators

Econbrowser faces the data: (since Apr 30,2025)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 11.7 (describes  2025:Q1)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

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