Commodity price indexes through June have turned down, excepting energy. Front month futures prices suggests a further abatement of upward commodity price pressure, including in energy.
World Trade, through Trump’s Trade War, Covid/Recession, Russian Aggression
From the Netherlands Bureau of Economic Policy Analysis (CPB), world trade volume through April 2022:
GDP Nowcasts
GDPNow at -1.6%, St. Louis Fed News index at +4%, IHS-Markit at -2.0%, and Goldman Sachs at 0.5%. Bloomberg consensus at +0.4% (all q/q SAAR).
If You Think the Russian Government Is Doing Just Fine Because of Oil/Gas Revenues…
Here’s some data, from BOFIT, “Russian federal budget revenues continue to deteriorate,” published today:”
If We End Up Talking about the Global Recession of 2023, What/Who Will We Blame?
As forecasts are marked down (IMF releases new forecasts on Tuesday), here in two pictures is my answer:
CFR Growth Tracker
A great new tool for data visualization: y/y growth rates as of 2022Q1:
Tracking the Russian Economy: Are Sanctions Working? [Updated]
[Updated 7/22 using 7/22 BOFIT Weekly Monitor information] It depends on what you mean by “working”, even if Russian GDP (as reported) hasn’t collapsed yet in the reported statistics yet, the worst is likely yet to come. And some effects won’t be easily measurable.
So You Think We’re in a Recession Right Now? (Part VI)
Guest Contribution: “The US Q2 GDP Announcement Will Not Mean Recession”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate.
Inflation, Gasoline, Recession
I was on WPR’s Central Time today, discussing among other things: “Gas and oil prices are starting to come back down. We explore what that means for inflation and fears of a recession.”