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Econbrowser

Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

Russian GDP Prospects Visualized

Goldman Sachs cut its 2022 growth estimate from 2% to -7%. I visualize the level of GDP thus:

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This entry was posted on March 3, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

“Cabaret of Shadows”

A chamber opera with music by Laura Schwendinger, libretto by Ginger Strand, in Houston this weekend.

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This entry was posted on March 2, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Market Implied Expected Rates

Interestingly, if implied forwards are to be believed, the Fed won’t be raising rates too fast.

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This entry was posted on March 2, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Not “No Exit” – Just “One Exit”

FromKateryna Yushchenko.

Source: Kateryna Yushchenko.

Translation: Гаага = Hague

 

 

This entry was posted on March 2, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Business Cycle Indicators, March 1st

IHS-Markit just released its monthly GDP estimate for January, with 0% growth q/q. Bloomberg consensus for February nonfarm payroll shaved down to 400K, from 450K on 2/25.

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This entry was posted on March 1, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

A Forecast on Russian Policy Rate, Inflation

From Wells Fargo today:

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This entry was posted on March 1, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Risk, noon March 1st

Figure 1: Geopolitical Risk index – Acts (blue, left scale) and VIX (brown, right scale). 3/1 observation for VIX as of noon EST. Source: CBOE via FRED, Caldara and Iacoviello, accessed 3/1/2022.

This entry was posted on March 1, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Russian Exchange Rate Pass Through into Consumer Prices

For Russia, it’s maybe 10%-17% for 1 quarter, 50%-70% for 4 quarters.

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This entry was posted on February 28, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Risk and Safe Haven Effects

VIX up as GeoPolitical Risk rises. Dollar jumps on the invasion, but eases today, Treasury yields down due to safe haven effects. Anticipated interest rate increases moderate.

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This entry was posted on February 28, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

FT-IGM February Survey of Macroeconomists

Survey taken last week, published today here. The FT-IGM Survey of Macroeconomists median forecast implies this path for GDP:

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This entry was posted on February 28, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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Recent Posts

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  • Business Cycle Indicators at Mid-September
  • The Danger of Fed Credibility under Assault
  • WisPolitics/Wisconsin Technology Council: “How tariffs are affecting Wisconsin’s economy”
  • EJ Antoni, August 22: “The Coming Recession May Have Already Arrived”

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Current Indicators

Econbrowser faces the data: (since Apr 30,2025)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 11.7 (describes  2025:Q1)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

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