Even before Covid-19 struck, Wisconsin exports were declining despite a sideways-trending dollar…
Guest Contribution: “How Tariffs Affect China’s Exports”
Today, we’re fortunate to have Willem Thorbecke, Senior Fellow at Japan’s Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI) as a guest contributor. The views expressed represent those of the author himself, and do not necessarily represent those of RIETI, or any other institutions the author is affiliated with.
Everything Is Relative
From CNN Business, Dollar doldrums are back as inflation worries heat up:
Whose Consumer Price Index?
This post (an update of this) focuses on issue separate from the mathematics of the index formulation, and has to do with what the typical weights at any given instant in time should pertain to. Should one use the expenditure weights that pertain to all the households aggregated in the economy? Or should one use the expenditure weights that pertain to the “typical” household? Kokoski (2003) [updated link] summarizes the distinction thus:
CPI Skepticism
Every few years, skepticism of officially calculated inflation rates surges, so it seems a good idea to now recap how the CPI measures (and mis-measures) the cost of living, remembering that in the absence of knowledge of the “true” utility function of the “representative agent”, one can’t know the correct approach.
Five Year Breakeven Inflation Expectations
After adjustment for premia, constant over the last three months:
Employment Release and Business Cycle Indicators
Employment figures were released today, showing continued growth. In the context of key macro indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee:
Guest Contribution: “Policy Rules and Forward Guidance Following the Covid-19 Recession”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest post written by David Papell and Ruxandra Prodan, Professor and Instructional Associate Professor of Economics at the University of Houston.
Steel Employment and Production
Employment and production were declining before the pandemic. March employment is roughly the same as three years ago. Production is down 7.8% in April vs. three years prior.
Debt Dynamics, and the Real Interest Rate
Debt-to-GDP dynamics are described by this expression.