Senator Ron Johnson has recently observed:
“It’s not like we don’t have enough jobs here in Wisconsin.”
Senator Ron Johnson and Bringing Jobs to Wisconsin
Senator Ron Johnson, on Foxconn, in 2018:
Business Cycle Indicators, with Employment
With the upside surprise in nonfarm payroll employment, we have the following picture of economic activity.
Data Paranoia Watch, Edition MMLXVI (seasonal adjustment)
A reader calls my attention to this article arguing that the large upside surprise in employment growth reported for January 2022 is due to seasonal adjustment. It takes 10 seconds to find the requisite not-seasonally-adjusted data on FRED, and another 10 seconds to load it into a decent software package as simple as Excel, and another 10 seconds (at most) to type in the command to take a 12 month log difference to see seasonal adjustment issues are not the reason for the big job growth number (there might very well be other reasons, but that ain’t it).
Economic Activity in Wisconsin – Assorted Macro Metrics
A reader observes, there are “So many ways to compare “performance”. That’s so true!
The Recovery in Wisconsin Compared
It’s lagging that of the BEA Great Lakes Region, and of neighbor Minnesota.
BLS Private Nonfarm Payroll Employment – ADP, Consensus, Revisions
BLS Private nonfarm payrolls up 444K vs. ADP down 301K vs. +150K consensus (Bloomberg), with big revisions to previous months. A lesson in not over-reading the ADP series (see employment situation release).
Nearly Three-Quarters of a Century of Productivity and Costs
Numbers released today for 2021Q4.
The Recovery in Wisconsin
Output is still below peak levels.
ADP Downside Surprise
Private nonfarm payrolls down 301K vs. +207K consensus (Bloomberg). Still, don’t over-read.