From Baumeister, Leiva-León, and Sims, “Tracking Weekly State-Level Economic Conditions”:
Ordinary People vs. Economists on the CPI Level
Pretty big spread in views, illustrated:
Section 232 Report on Automobiles Released (over 2 years after submission to Trump)
Inflation Expectations – 5 Year Horizon
From Bloomberg today, “The Great Reflation Trade Is Buckling All Across Wall Street”:
More Great Quotes from the Past
From a reader in 2018:
The people 2slugs disdains can overhaul an engine and cultivate a field way better than 2slugs, and have way more “common sense” than many university professors. The supposed nincompoop Trump voters in his 2 years have lead a national economic performance that Obama in his 8 years, lead by “elites” such as 2slugbaits, never did, and in fact said was impossible. Who is the expert here?
In 2017Q1-20Q1, GDP growth averaged 1.9%, and in Obama’s second term averaged 2.4%. (In Trump’s first two years, GDP growth averaged 2.6%. To be clear, what mainstream economists said was impossible was the 4% or 5% growth Trump promised.
Guest Contribution: “How far to full employment?”
Today, we are fortunate to present a guest contribution written by Paweł Skrzypczyński, economist at the National Bank of Poland. The views expressed herein are those of the author and should not be attributed to the National Bank of Poland.
Great Quotes from the Past
In order to judge the analytical abilities of an individual, it is sometimes useful to look back at their previous assessments. Consider this comment:
Interest Rate Paths for the Treasury Ten Year
As the pace of growth has picked up, forecasts of ten year Treasury yields have risen as well. Here are some recent ones.
The Delta Variant: Macro Implications
From DB, does the UK presage the US?
Temperature Anomaly – Northern Hemisphere
Here’s a time series plot of 12 month moving averages of monthly global temperature anomalies for the northern hemisphere, both for land and ocean (blue) and land (red), (in degree C). Note: June is not included…