850K was the headline NFP number today. Just a reminder that, while a surprise on the upside (150K over Bloomberg consensus of just yesterday), employment is still down 4.4% relative to NBER peak.
GDP Forecasts from CBO and IMF [updated 7/2]
CBO released an Update to its Budget and Economic Outlook, while the IMF released a mission concluding statement for its Article IV review of the United States. Here are the implied GDP levels for year-end 2021 [and updated CBO potential GDP, h/t Paweł Skrzypczyński]
Business Cycle Indicators as of July 1
IHS-MarkIt monthly GDP for May down 0.1%, while Bloomberg consensus for June nonfarm payrolls is for a 700K increase.
Guest Contribution: ‘“False Imbalance” in Reporting on Economic Policy’
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate.
Inaugural FT-IGM survey of academic macroeconomists
Forecasting in Unprecedented Times
Consider the plight of a time series econometrician who wants to do a quick and dirty forecast for the next year, conditioned only on past information on GDP. One might end up with series in the graph below.
Judy Shelton on Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity
From the Independent Institute, “The Moment Janet Yellen Moved for ‘Greasing the Wheels’ with Inflation”, discussing a 1996 meeting of the Fed:
Hendrix and Noland, “Assessing Potential Economic Policy Responses to Genocide in Xinjiang”
From Cullen Hendrix and Marcus Noland at Peterson Institute for International Economics, “Assessing Potential Economic Policy Responses to Genocide in Xinjiang” – Economic Policy Responses:
Wisconsin GDP in Q1
Wisconsin GDP has recovered largely in line with the US, but the bifurcation in economy remains.
Business Cycle Indicators as of June 27
Personal income and consumption for May were released last week, as well as the April manufacturing and trade industry sales figure.