Wisconsin nonfarm payroll employment has stabilized at a level down 4.7% relative to NBER peak in 2020M02, vs. 5.4% for the nation overall (according to figures released by DWD yesterday).
More Nonsense
A Graphical Framework for Thinking about Inflation Surprises
From the my EconoFact article “Rising Inflation?“, which begins:
There are concerns about inflation rising, and perhaps even accelerating, fueled by an overheating economy as a consequence of the large fiscal stimulus, the Federal Reserve’s commitment to keeping interest rates low for an extended period, and pent-up demand for consumption that was foregone during the pandemic. The last bout of high and rising inflation, in the 1970s, was during a time of economic distress and only ended with a painful recession engineered by the Federal Reserve in the early 1980s. Are we in for a similar episode today? While inflation has been high in the past few months, at least compared to its level since the Great Recession that began in 2008, several factors suggest that we should not be concerned about sustained and accelerating inflation – at least not yet.
Numbers for the Innumerate
A reader writes:
I think, however, there is a need to more closely examine the overheating of the economy and paths and timing of unwind, for example. As you’ll recall, I argued that the economy was under suppression, not recession, and that’s proving right. So we’re seeing a kind of overheating I can’t recall since maybe the late 1960s or 1970s.
Relative vs. General Price Changes
Or, between identities vs. functions. Reader Corev comments:
Business Cycle Indicators, Mid-May
April industrial production figures were released yesterday. Here’s a depiction of these figures in the context of key macro indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee:
Inflation Expectations – Mid-May
Surveys indicate some acceleration, vis a vis last month.
CPI Inflation Rates, Month-on-Month
Headline vs. Trimmed vs. Sticky Price:
Interpreting the Labor Market
The employment surprise – demand shortfall, supply constraints, or statistical artefact? I discussed on WPR Central Time yesterday.
Guest Contribution: “The Impact of COVID-19 on Global Industrial Production”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution by Steven Kamin (AEI), formerly Director of the Division of International Finance at the Federal Reserve Board. The views presented represent those of the authors, and not necessarily those of the institutions the authors are affiliated with.