Econbrowser reader Manfred, in responding to my critique of the late Mr. Limbaugh’s use (or non-use) of statistics, writes of me:
…you had access to schools that many others in the US do not…
Five Measures of Real Average Hourly Earnings in Accommodation & Food Services
Still likely rising. We’re awaiting October CPI numbers, and October wages for accommodation and food services, but using nowcasts and extrapolations, we can show what real wages look like through October.
Economists Stereotypes
Econbrowser reader sammy claims:
1) Economists have limited exposure to the real world
2) Economists extrapolate off last period statistics, which are much more imprecise than they acknowledge
3) Economists are ideological and can torture statistics to reach the desired outcome
Macro Implications of BBB and IIJA Passage
We are still in the process of determining what’s in the Build Back Better (BBB) bill, but it approximates what is currently discussed, it in conjunction with the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) will not likely lead to much pressure in credit markets and upward pressure in prices, given it is largely paid for. Here (while we wait for the CBO) are Moody’s Analytics projections (as of 11/4).
Long-lived Negative Consequences of Steel Tariffs
(not in 2018, but in 2002-03):
What Remains of the Inflation Scare of October 2021?
Some messages from the market and from estimated inflation rates.
Are Real Wages Being Eroded by Inflation?
The answer depends on the deflator.
Do We Really Not Know What Happened to NFP Given Likely Revisions?
BLS documents the extent of revisions going from 1st to 2nd, 1st to 3rd, 2nd to 3rd releases of NFP, here. Using the 2019 mean absolute revisions, the range of plausible values for employment growth (not percent growth) is shown below.
Employment in October: Faster Growth
The employment release for October provided lots of interesting facts. First employment growth is faster than anticipated, and second was faster in September than originally estimated.
Serious Thinking about Imprecision in Economic Statistics
Reader rsm responds to my citation of GDP and Human Development Index data thusly:
Why not include the standard errors?
Again, because they would be so wide, you could tell any story and back it up with data?