Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data show the divergence from the establishment survey measurment of total employment in the months before the peak.
Figure 1: Year-on-year growth rate in nonfarm payroll employment from establishment survey (red), from Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (blue), both calculated as 12 month log differences. Source: BLS, author’s calculations.
NBER identified peak is 2020M02.
Nonfarm payroll employment continues to rise in June (although it remained over 10% below peak, in log terms). Here is a graph of some key variables tracked by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee.
CDC has defined 4 criteria for relaxing restrictions (called “gating criteria). Only two states now meet all the criteria, a lot meet 0 or only 1 — 11 states.
Source: Goldman-Sachs, 7/1/2020.
Florida meets none; Texas meets 1, but is just teetering on slipping into none.
From Wells Fargo’s mobility trends report, today (for Google data thru 27th, Apple data thru 29th):
These types of data are used to infer economic activity at the regional level. Note that this data is not seasonally adjusted.
ADP releases its figure for private nonfarm payroll. Bloomberg consensus is for BLS is for an increase.
The obvious question: will July register an increase, as restrictions are re-instituted?
The New York Fed’s Weekly Economic Index suggests yes.
From Trinity College Dublin:
CALL FOR PAPERS
IM-TCD half-day workshop on:
International Capital Flows and Financial Globalisation
Date: December 17th, 2020
Venue: Zoom
From Invictus:
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Valerio Ercolani, from the Directorate General for Economics, Statistics and Research at the Bank of Italy. The views expressed in this note represent that of the author and not necessarily reflect those of Bank of Italy.