When assessing the course of US inflation, it’s helpful to have a model; the one I use is the AD-AS model described in this post. The cost of imported inputs can be interpreted as a cost-push shock (rather than an overheated economy caused by high aggregate demand relative to low potential GDP). In this context, China — as a major supplier of inputs and commodities to the US — looms large. And hence, developments there loom large. The preliminary findings that the Chinese vaccines are not particularly effective against the omicron variant, combined with the Chinese authorities’ zero tolerance for covid infections, means that the disruptions to imports from China are likely to continue for some time.
Wages and Prices in Wisconsin
How are wages moving in Wisconsin, relative to the cost of living (as measured by the CPI)? It’s hard to tell.
Gasoline Prices Moving Downward
As of Monday, 12/27, from EIA via FRED:
Regional Inflation Rates
A recent article (N. Brophy, Appleton Post-Crescent) outlined some of the causes and implications of heightened inflation. The article lays out some of Wisconsin-specific effects. The discussion is somewhat constrained since BLS only reports limited region-specific CPI data, and none limited to Wisconsin, so the author makes some inferences linked to housing prices, energy and wage costs. Nonetheless, there are some interesting regional differences.
Guest Contribution: “History Advises Biden to Match Signals with Actions”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate.
Using Chained Quantities when Relative Prices Change a Lot
Usually, summing up chained quantities yields relatively small errors. However, when relative prices change a lot, then the differences can be large. That’s the case with relative prices of consumption since the pandemic. Hence, the sum of the components does not equal the total for consumption.
Business Cycle Indicators, End-2021
With the release of personal income and consumption, we have some of the last readings we’ll receive this year (although December’s readings will still be coming in in January). Here are some key indicators followed by the NBER BCDC.
More on Market Indicators pre- & post-Manchin
Following up on the previous post on expectations responses from the market to Manchin, Just putting together all the pieces of betting odds on the size of the reconciliation package, and the impact on implied expected inflation, real rates, and future economic activity. I plot on a 7 day frequency so as to include the odds from PredictIt, which do not stay constant over the weekend.
Breakevens and Term Spreads Pre- & Post-Manchin
Manchin’s announcement that he would vote against BBB constituted a kind of event study. Here are the market indicators of expected inflation and economic activity.
Per Capita GDP Doing Just Fine, Linearly, since 1947
If you don’t believe me, take a look at this time series plot of available US GDP per capita.