No acceleration in growth rates, but GDP level higher relative to October survey; few see a true “V”, or a true “W”.
Transition Teams – Economics
TPM has the list of transition team members. Below I reproduce those involving in economics.
Manufacturing Employment, Hours and Output and the Trade War, Pre-Covid-19
Can we settle on a verdict on whether the trade war saved manufacturing? One way is to examine how the manufacturing sector fared.
The Trade Balance Today, and Near Future
If we wanted to reduce the trade deficit — let’s say because we wanted to increase aggregate demand and hence employment, rather than some atavistic belief the deficits are bad — then we will probably need to convincingly deal with the pandemic. Remember, the trade deficit (in NIPA terms) is now bigger than it was the day Mr. Trump took office.
Covid-19 Is Still Here: Implications for Employment
A reminder that it’s still possible to save tens of thousands of lives, with a return to competence and science in the waning days of the Trump administration (it goes without saying management would improve immeasurably in the Biden-Harris administration). Covid-19 hospitalizations are soaring. Seven day rolling average of deaths is at 970, showing a rapid ascent (it’s rising 19% per week). How long can employment continue to grow as the pandemic again surges?
Macroeconomic Management in the New Administration
today, as I was writing a short comment on the dollar’s prospects, I realized how much my views were informed by who was likely to be managing the macroeconomy. Just to make this point concrete, consider the economic team under Trump, as compared to under Obama as the latter confronted the Great Recession:
Business Cycle Indicators, November 6
Meanwhile, back in the real economy, the employment decelerates. Here’s the current outlook, using some key indicators noted by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC).
Employment in October: Further Deceleration
The employment release confirms a deceleration in employment, presaging deceleration in the other macro indicators. Government employment is down, and not solely because of the winding-down of the decennial Census. Rather, state and local government employment is declining, and is now 6.8% below NBER peak level.
Staging Artemisia – Art, Opera and Theatre at the National Gallery (London)
Tomorrow 11am Eastern, noon Central, and 6pm GMT, from the National Gallery of Art in London (online, registration req’d), an event with Artemisia‘s composer Laura Schwendinger, librettist Ginger Strand, and Billy Barrett and Ellice Stevens, of Breach:
The Recovery: Reverse Radical or W?
IHS-Markit released estimates for monthly GDP a couple days ago. Here’s the contours of the recovery so far — and it’s not a “V”.