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Econbrowser

Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

Business Cycle Indicators, Mid-May

April industrial production figures were released yesterday. Here’s a depiction of these figures in the context of key macro indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee:

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This entry was posted on May 15, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

Inflation Expectations – Mid-May

Surveys indicate some acceleration, vis a vis last month.

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This entry was posted on May 15, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

CPI Inflation Rates, Month-on-Month

Headline vs. Trimmed vs. Sticky Price:

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This entry was posted on May 13, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

Interpreting the Labor Market

The employment surprise – demand shortfall, supply constraints, or statistical artefact? I discussed on WPR Central Time yesterday.

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This entry was posted on May 12, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

Guest Contribution: “The Impact of COVID-19 on Global Industrial Production”

Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution by Steven Kamin (AEI), formerly Director of the Division of International Finance at the Federal Reserve Board. The views presented represent those of the authors, and not necessarily those of the institutions the authors are affiliated with.


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This entry was posted on May 12, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

The Employment Surprise and Bond Yields

Given the employment surprise (NFP 266K actual vs. 978K expected, while GS forecasted 1300K), it would be remarkable if interest rates did not respond. Stock indices did drop, then recovered to pre-surprise trend. Five year bond yields did drop somewhat.

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This entry was posted on May 8, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

The Employment Report and Business Cycle Indicators

April employment figures were released today, showing a marked slowdown in the labor market. Here’s a depiction of these figures in the context of key macro indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee:

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This entry was posted on May 7, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

Market Based Inflation Expectations at 5 Year Horizon

The simple — conventionally reported — inflation breakeven calculation might be misleading.

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This entry was posted on May 6, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

Private Nonfarm Payroll Employment in April

ADP private nonfarm change at 742K below consensus of 800K (Bloomberg).

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This entry was posted on May 5, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

US Agriculture and the Global Economy

Some recent research from the agency Mr. Trump found too meddlesome, and Mr. Mulvaney tried to dispatch (i.e., the USDA’s Economic Research Service):

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This entry was posted on May 5, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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