Slightly higher 2020 growth for advanced economies forecasted – but big challenges moving forward
For the Record: Covid-19 Hospitalizations, Fatalities
Covid-19 related current hospitalizations are up; administratively defined fatalities are up slightly. However the pattern displayed in figure 1 is unsettling (a rejoinder to all those folks who think hospitalization is falling, and think cases rising is merely a reflection of more testing; e.g., here).
Nowcasts Compared
NY Fed, Atlanta Fed, St. Louis Fed, and IHS Markit released nowcasts today.
Covid-19: Excess Fatalities vs. Administrative Counts
In contrast to earlier weeks, the most recent “excess fatality” count is solidly in the positive region, despite the severe under-reporting bias in the most recent observations. To see this, consider the most recent estimates for each of the previous vintages of “excess fatalities” calculated as actual-expected.
This Time Was Not Different
Revising notes on recession prediction for my course, I find the 10yr-3mo spread has preceded 7 of the last 8 recessions (8 if the 14 bps near inversion of mid-1989). And back in June 2019, recession seemed not unlikely.
Wisconsin Alumni Assn/La Follette School/Elections Research Center panel: “Foreign Relations, Trade, & Policy: 2021 and Beyond”
On Oct 12, 7-8:30pm Central:
Moderator: Susan Webb Yackee — director of the La Follette School of Public Affairs
Panelists:
- Menzie Chinn — professor of public affairs and economics
- Mark Copelovitch — professor of political science, public affairs, and international relations
- Tana Johnson ’01 — associate professor of public affairs and political science
- Jon Pevehouse — Vilas Distinguished Professor of Political Science: International Relations
Register here.
WSJ October Survey: Q3 Growth Revised Up, Q4 Down
In levels (incorporating revisions to actual GDP):
Deal/No Deal
Macro (GDP) implications of “no deal”.
Wall Street Votes on Ending Covid Package Negotiations
The Hill (posted at 3:01 EDT):
President Trump said Tuesday that he has instructed his top aides to stop negotiating with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) on future coronavirus stimulus legislation until after the November election.
The Dow Jones:
Still More Winning! “U.S. goods trade deficit in August hits record high”
Headline from Politico. From today’s trade release for August:
Figure 1: US trade balance, bn. $, SAAR (blue, left scale), as a share of GDP (red, right scale). Light orange shading denotes Trump administration. Nominal GDP interpolated quadratic match. Source: BuCensus/BEA via FRED, BEA, and author’s calculations.