Reader JohnH writes:
There is little discussion of the industry influence in the media, and even on Google, and certainly not among economists, who shun any discussion of power dynamics and corporate influence in the global economy like the plague.
FT-IGM US Macroeconomists Survey for December
Inflation Breakeven, Term Spread, Risk and Uncertainty: A Snapshot
As we get additional news day by day, it’s useful to see what financial and other indicators have to say about the economic outlook.
Variation in the Potential Geographic Impact of Omicron
Very tentative (non-clinical test) indications are that vaccination helps reduce incidence and severity of infections from the omicron variant. If this proves true, then we should expect vaccination rates to be critical to impact. Here’s the map, county-by-county.
Real Wages through November
If current nowcasts are accurate, we see erosion in some real wages, but not even those for hospitality and leisure. That’s not true for total private NFP using the PCE deflator. [italics denote correction 12/5]
Interpreting the Employment Release – November 2021
A couple of plots to highlight the fact that the November number on nonfarm payroll employment should be understood in the context of ongoing revisions in the data (see release here).
Business Cycle Indicators as of December 1st
Monthly GDP grows 1.5% m/m, pushed by exports. Along with current expectations for this Friday’s employment release, we have the following picture.
So You Want to Be a Monetarist!
consider the velocity of M2…
Financial Markets and Omicron and Powell
Five year inflation breakeven (unadjusted) down, 10yr-3mo term spread down, VIX and EPU up, and S&P 500 down.
Consumer Confidence, Inflation and Unemployment
There’s a lot of discussion regarding the negative impact of inflation on consumer sentiment. That’s definitely there – but unemployment also has a negative impact. And there is a (at least short run) tradeoff between the two. Relevantly, what would unemployment be in the absence of the American Recovery Plan, the CARES Act, and expansionary monetary policies of the Fed?