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Econbrowser

Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

Dis-Inversion and Re-Inversion over the Last 3 Months

Not sure what it means, but I suspect heightened growth anxieties for the 4 month to 3 years horizon.

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This entry was posted on February 21, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Consumer Expectations Crash, 1 Year Ahead Inflation Expectations Soar as 5 Year Ahead Hits Record

5 year ahead inflation at 3.5%, highest since 1995M04. From Michigan Survey of Consumers:

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This entry was posted on February 21, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Bringing Prices Down: A Progress Report

We’re a month into Trump 2.0. We don’t have February’s prices yet, but since Trump was going to do everything “Day 1”, I thought it useful to take a look at various indices.

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This entry was posted on February 20, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

What — If Anything — Do Re-inverting Term Spreads Mean?

Open question – we’re not quite there yet.

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This entry was posted on February 20, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

No Recession until 2025Q4 (Assuming Reciprocal Tariffs w/Retaliation) [graph corrected!]

And CBO’s January  projection:

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This entry was posted on February 20, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

NBC News: “USDA says it accidentally fired officials working on bird flu and is trying to rehire them”

From NBC News.

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This entry was posted on February 18, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

EPU and Expected Inflation

From election day, five year inflation breakeven up 33 bps; EPU up 231. What could go wrong?

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This entry was posted on February 18, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Anthony Diercks, Daniel Soques and Jing Cynthia Wu: “Perfect Recession Indicators”

From the abstract to the paper:

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This entry was posted on February 18, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Policy Uncertainty in the US, Globally

as measured by Baker, Bloom and Davis’s EPU. I was in Europe, and conversations were in high gear about how things now seemed. And text mining confirms:

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This entry was posted on February 18, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

AP: “Trump begins firings of FAA air traffic control staff just weeks after fatal DC plane crash”

Article here.

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This entry was posted on February 17, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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Recent Posts

  • You Daily Reminder: Prices of Import Competing Goods Rise with Tariffed Imported Goods Prices
  • June FT-Booth Macro Survey: GDP level same as March Survey
  • Policy Uncertainty Spikes
  • Nowcasts and Tracking of “Core GDP”
  • Gold: The Challenger to Dollar Reserves?

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Current Indicators

Econbrowser faces the data: (since Apr 30,2025)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 6.8 (describes  2024:Q4)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

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