From the US Naval Institute:
Kursk 2024 – Update 8/15/2024
From MilitaryLand.
Business Cycle Indicators – NBER and Alternative – Mid-July 2024
With the Fed’s industrial production release (-0.6% m/m vs. -0.3% consensus) and retail sales (+1.0% m/m vs. +0.4% consensus), we have the following pictures, the first of the indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, plus monthly GDP.
Instantaneous Core Inflation: Five Measures
With the CPI release, we have new July observations for 3 series.
The Great Replacement “Theory” * Comes to Economics at Heritage
Heritage Foundation’s EJ Antoni writes on X (August 2):
Over the last year, native-born Americans have LOST 1.2 million jobs while foreign-born employment has increased 1.3 million; we’re just swapping out American workers at this point, not growing the pie for everyone…
PPI Downside Surprise
Core PPI 0.0% m/m vs +0.2% consensus (+2.4% y/y vs. +2.7% consensus). Here’s a picture of instantaneous core measures.
Oxford Economics: Recession at 3 & 6 Months Horizons
If you’re wondering about a recession by the time the election rolls around…
Podcast: On the Macroeconomy, and on Wisconsin
Me, interviewed with Buzz Kemper, on BadgerTalks, recorded on 8/6 (Episode 44).
One Year Ahead CPI Inflation Expectations down in July for Consumers, Firms, Economists
Last one for August (from Survey of Professional Forecasters).
Already in Recession?
Pascal Michaillat (UCSC) and Emmanuel Saez (UC Berkeley) say 40% probability, yes. From the abstract to the paper: