On Friday, the CBO released The Effects of Pandemic-Related Legislation on Output.
Guest Contribution: “The Trade War Has Cost 175,000 Manufacturing Jobs and Counting”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Lydia Cox (Harvard University) and Kadee Russ (University of California, Davis), both formerly on the staff of the Council of Economic Advisers.
Some High Frequency Indicators
Source: DB, “Covid-19 impact tracker,” US Economic Perspectives, 17 September 2020.
State Employment Relative to Year Ago
The map below shows the geographic variation in the decline in nonfarm payroll employment relative to August 2019. Nationwide, the decline is 6.8% (NFP growth was trending at 1.6% up to February 2020, 1.3% up to August 2019).
Wisconsin Employment in August
Statistics released by Wisconsin DWD show nonfarm payroll employment growing in line with US, but — like at the national level — at a decelerating pace.
No Longer Does Sweden Beat US in Covid-19 Deaths per Capita
And the US is fast approaching Italy’s record.
Covid-19 Fatality Rates Rising Again
Not good news. Not that it was so great even before this.
Business Cycle Peak in Monthly vs. Quarterly Data
There’s been some debate over how low GDP is relative to peak. One has to be particularly careful in calculations because the monthly peak is different than the quarterly peak, according to the NBER BCDC.
Nominal Income Targeting and Measurement Issues
Nominal GDP targeting has been advocated in a recent Joint Economic Committee report “Stable Monetary Policy to Connect More Americans to Work”.
Business Cycle Indicators, September 15th
With today’s industrial production release, here’s a picture of five indicators tracked by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC):