Nonfarm payroll employment under consensus, confirms the slowdown:
Business Cycle Indicators as of 1 October
Deceleration continues, according to some key indicators noted by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC).
How Certain Are We that Excess Fatalities Are Declining
When each Week, Peak Excess Deaths Gets Pushed Further Out
Slow Recovery Continues: Private Employment
ADP and Bloomberg consensus says don’t expect surge, don’t expect decline…
The July Trade Release
Trade deficit grows. US-China goods trade deficit is now growing too.
Pondering Elevated Wisconsin Covid-19 Infection Rates Resulting from a Successful Judgment for Wisconsin Institute for Law and Liberty
Striking down Governor Evers’s mask mandate in the name of process means fatalities almost assuredly must be higher than otherwise. From AP today:
Swing State Wisconsin: The Major Issues
Presented by UW–Madison’s La Follette School of Public Affairs and WisPolitics.com (October 2, 12 noon central)
The Impending Food-Service Sector Disaster
From Torsten Slok, now at Apollo.
Using One’s Eyes
A reader writes, in reference to CDC Covid-19 data on fatalities and excess fatalities, and how the estimates change over time as new data come in:
‘Twixt Peer Reviewed and Bits on the Web
What to cite when the research frontier is moving fast…