From Invictus:
Guest Contribution: “Covid-induced precautionary saving in the US: the role of unemployment rate”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Valerio Ercolani, from the Directorate General for Economics, Statistics and Research at the Bank of Italy. The views expressed in this note represent that of the author and not necessarily reflect those of Bank of Italy.
The Swedish Experiment, Illustrated
Reader Bruce Hall, like all too many other people, thinks Sweden is doing just great. Here’re some data pertaining to the performance of its neighbors.
Change in Cases, US-ex.Tri State, Texas and Florida
Guess it didn’t disappear, like a miracle.
Source: I. Rosenberg, “Global Economics Comment: Tracking Coronavirus,” Goldman Sachs, 27 June 2020.
Business Cycle Indicators, June 26th
Big positive numbers for growth — but remember the level matters.
GDP Nowcasts, June 26th
- GDPNow 6/26 -39.5%
- NY Fed nowcast 6/26 -16.3%
- St. Louis Fed 6/26 -38.14%
- IHS 6/26 -35.3%
GDP Now estimates over time:
Some reasons why nowcasts differ, by Jim Hamilton.
“The US and China in the global order: the role of the dollar and tensions with China”
Yesterday, I had the pleasure of joining a virtual panel sponsored by the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF), is think tank covering central banking, economic policy and public investment.
The South Is Hot
In terms of Covid-19 challenges. From Goldman Sachs today:
IMF World Economic Outlook, June Update Forecast
Today, the IMF released an extensive update to its April forecast, incorporating substantial downward revisions to forecasted growth.
Recession/Recovery and Covid-19
Just released – results from the 3rd round of the IGM/FiveThirtyEight survey – growth paths and downside risks