One of the key difficulties in measuring effects and attributing causality is the fact that there are typically many confounding factors. That is why social scientists (and financial economists) often resort to event analyses — looking at what happens around a certain event (like an announcement) when little else is happening. Because there is so much going on with the Trump administration, this is not always possible. However, yesterday evening, the White House released a directive to USTR to identify an additional $200 billion worth of taxable Chinese imports. Here is what happened.
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Round Two for US-China Trade?
One irrelevant graph and one (possibly) relevant graph, in light of Mr. Trump’s statement on additional trade sanctions.
First, the irrelevant: the US-China trade deficit, which has been deteriorating over the first five quarters of the Trump administration.
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What Does This Mean? Trump asks USTR to…”identify $200 billion in Chinese goods for additional tariffs at 10% rate”
That’s part headline from CNBC.
President Donald Trump has requested the United States Trade Representative to identify $200 billion worth of Chinese goods for additional tariffs at a rate of 10 percent.
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Just Implementing Laws, and Following Orders, June 18, 1944
Historian Michael Beschloss just posted this picture, from 64 74 years ago today.
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Explaining the Soybean Selloff: Ag Conditions, the Dollar, or Tariff Fears?
Guest Contribution: “Protectionism Is Nothing New for Republicans”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared in Project Syndicate.
Mr. Trump’s Separation Policy and a Little Bit of History
In America, have we ever by policy rather than by law separated family members, including children, from other family members, while awaiting processing? The answer is yes, and we don’t need to go too far back in history.
45 Years of Nominal Soybean Prices
Source:Source: MacroTrends.
Soybean Futures in Free Fall: Front and Back Months
Reader Ed Hanson asks if it makes a difference to look at front month or back month futures in discerning the impact of news on soybean prices. The answer is no.
Below, I present graphs of soybean futures over the past year for contracts expiring in July, August, September, November, and January 2019 (all accessed on 6/15, from ino.com):
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On the Eve of Disruption
(Apologies to P.F.S./B.McG) Soybean, hog prices and corn prices dove even before the Section 301 import tax hit list was announced. (Orange dashed line denotes Trump announcing imminent Section 232 tariffs). Why?
