Last year’s recap was subtitled “Fighting against the normalization of lying”. At least this year, lies are called lies. Now it’s time to shun the liars, and relegate them to where they belong.
Continue readingTreasury Spreads and Measured Economic Policy Uncertainty for 2018
A correlation shows up in the last month or so:
Guest Contribution: “Six right predictions in 2018”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers.
In the Space of Two Weeks, the 10yr-3mo Spread Has Halved, and Is Now at 0.35%
That’s all you need to know.
Update, 1/1/2019: Bob Flood sends this graph which — as he characterizes it — “seems to good to be true” (in a social scientist sort of way).
Is California in Recession? (Part XII)
November coincident indices from the Philadelphia Fed are out. Time to re-evaluate this assessment from a year ago in Political Calculations that California was in recession.
Going by these [household survey based labor market] measures, it would appear that recession has arrived in California, which is partially borne out by state level GDP data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. [text as accessed on 12/27/2017]
The release provides an opportunity to revisit this question (the November employment figures are discussed here). It’s (still) unlikely that a recession occurred.
How I Freaked Myself Out: Economic Crisis Management Teams, 2009 vs. 2019
In the wake of the pre-holiday meltdown in the financial markets, I thought for a few minutes about who would be doing crisis management, especially after SecTreas Mnuchin’s ham-fisted attempt to calm the markets. My musings did not calm my nerves. Consider the January 2009 team and the (likely, barring further dismissals) January 2019 team, and you’ll see what I mean.
Continue reading“Top US Economist Stephen Moore: … Powell Should Resign”
Look no further for the source of Mr. Trump’s economic proclivities. The entire article title: “Top US Economist Stephen Moore: Time for New Pilot at the Fed – Jerome Powell’s Policies Are Disastrous – Powell Should Resign” (12/19):
Is California in Recession? (Part XI)
November employment figures are out. Time to re-evaluate this assessment from a year ago in Political Calculations that California was in recession.
Going by these [household survey based labor market] measures, it would appear that recession has arrived in California, which is partially borne out by state level GDP data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. [text as accessed on 12/27/2017]
Factors in Unemployment Dynamics
That’s the topic of a new FEDS Note that I just published with Hie Joo Ahn. Here’s what we discuss:
The U.S. unemployment rate averaged 8.4% during the first five years of recovery from the Great Recession of 2007-2009, the weakest recovery on record. But as the expansion continued, unemployment continued to decline and by 2018 reached the lowest levels in almost half a century. Why did unemployment remain so high for so long, and what factors contributed to the recent lows?
Comey, Cohn, Sessions,… Powell?
From Bloomberg, tonight:
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