College re-opening or disdain for masks…or both! From WSJ:
Some public-health officials say they suspect that the large number of socially inclined students returning to the state at the end of August and start of September worked in tandem with another dynamic: a large number of state residents who don’t wear masks, they say, because many communities don’t require them or don’t enforce orders requiring them.
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared in Project Syndicate and The Guardian.
Last night, I knew I was on tap to talk about Wisconsin GDP numbers today (Wisconsin Public Radio report here). I wondered what a naive forecast would imply, so I regressed first difference of log Wisconsin GDP on first difference of log US GDP and a lagged Wisconsin GDP first difference, to obtain this forecast…(red square)
A Panel presented by UW–Madison’s La Follette School of Public Affairs and WisPolitics.com (October 2), video here.
Wisconsin GDP declined by 32.6% (SAAR) in 2020Q2, compared to 31.4% for the US. BEA’s release today notes Wisconsin’s Q/Q growth in Q2 ranked 35th.
Nonfarm payroll employment under consensus, confirms the slowdown:
Deceleration continues, according to some key indicators noted by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC).
When each Week, Peak Excess Deaths Gets Pushed Further Out
ADP and Bloomberg consensus says don’t expect surge, don’t expect decline…
Trade deficit grows. US-China goods trade deficit is now growing too.