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Econbrowser

Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

September Private Nonfarm Payroll Employment According to ADP

Since we won’t get the BLS September numbers on Friday, this is what we have.

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This entry was posted on October 1, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Douglas Holtz-Eakin on Trade and the Future of the Global Economy [updated]

In a discussion with myself and Aaron Zitzelsberger (WEDC), at UW Madison, Thursday 2 October 2025, sponsored by the Alexander Hamilton Society at UW Madison .

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This entry was posted on September 30, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

White House Pulls EJ Antoni Nomination to BLS Chief

From The Hill:

Source: Times of Israel.

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This entry was posted on September 30, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

World Bank: “Accelerating Investment: Challenges and Policies”

A new volume from the World Bank, Office of Chief Economist:

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This entry was posted on September 30, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Guest Contribution: “How do UK and Australia relations with China react to US-China shocks”

Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Jamel Saadaoui (Université Paris 8-Vincennes).


 

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This entry was posted on September 30, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

CBO on Economic Costs of a Shutdown

Letter released today:

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This entry was posted on September 30, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Conference Board: “A sharp deterioration in consumers’ views of the current economic situation weighed on confidence”

Per release today. In standardized terms, U.Michigan Sentiment and Conference Board Confidence are at the same level in September.

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This entry was posted on September 30, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Douglas Holtz-Eakin on Trade and the Future of the Global Economy [updated]

In a discussion with myself and Aaron Zitzelsberger (WEDC), at UW Madison, Thursday 2 October 2025, sponsored by the Alexander Hamilton Society at UW Madison .

Continue reading →

This entry was posted on September 30, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Confirmed: Uncertainty about Trade Policy Rises

From Baker, Bloom and Davis, as well as Caldara et al., in the wake of Section 232 (“National Security”) tariffs on bathroom vanities, upholstered furniture, and some pharmaceuticals.

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This entry was posted on September 29, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Trump Shock on GDP vs. “Core GDP” Trajectories

Relying on GDP might provide a misleading impression of regained momentum.

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This entry was posted on September 29, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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  • Menzie Chinn

Recent Posts

  • Guest Contribution: “Can Professional Forecasters See Productivity Revolutions Coming?”
  • Parsing the Retail Sales Release
  • “…Chinese restaurants in America today outnumber the five largest fast food chains in the United States all combined.”
  • The Correlation Between Hormuz Strait Reopening and the Inflation Breakeven
  • How Big of a Cost-Push Shock? WTI at $91.38 in March

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Current Indicators

Econbrowser faces the data: (since  April 30, 2026)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 7.7 (describes  2025:Q4)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

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