Top of my list:
The Price and Income Elasticities of US Trade Flows
JW Mason asserts that, in focusing on the real exchange rate, I’m on the side of relative prices being the primary determinant of flows.
My Favorite Graph: Lagged RER-NX
Paul Krugman writes on The Dollar and the US Trade Deficit today, and reminds me of my favorite graph (makes an appearance each time I teach macro, and a version shows up in Chapter 13 of Chinn-Irwin International Economics.
A Manufacturing Recession?
Once again, Heritage’s EJ Antoni speaks (on Fox) about a manufacturing recession, focusing on employment. I’ll just point out that, according to the most relevant indicator, the manufacturing sector hasn’t been in a downturn for two years.
Teaching Macro, 2025
I’ve got undergrad upper division and MSc level macro courses (latter w/Charles Engel) to teach this spring (also a stats course, where I use lots of examples from comments as cautionary notes, [1], [2], [3], [4]). Last year I added to the undergrad course climate change and r*. This year, I’m taking suggestions.
Alternative Business Cycle Indicators as of the Year’s Start
The Philadelphia Fed’s Coincident Index is out, 2.1% m/m annualized (2.6% y/y):
“The economists’ word of the year”
From Kristin Schwab and Sofia Terenzio on Marketplace on New Year’s Eve:
Year End Disinversion: Bull or Bear Steepening?
With December 31 data, here’s the picture of term spreads:
Year in Review, 2024: Mendacity and Economic Incompetence, Equal Parts
I thought I was getting a little jaded, but the likes of Heritage Foundation’s EJ Antoni, the WisGOP, and Steve Kopits reaffirmed my faith in how much work remains.
What If? Thoughts on the No Excess Demand Scenario
It’s become commonplace to assert that the passage of the American Rescue Plan ignited inflation, dooming the prospects for the Biden and Harris candidacies. Consider this piece: