Expect further contraction
Short Term Economic Prospects in Kansas
Philadelphia Fed coincident indices for Kansas have been revised downward, along with forecasts.
“The Global Trade Slowdown: A New Normal?”
This is the title of a newly released VoxEU ebook, edited by Bernard Hoekman.
The post-Crisis decline in the growth rate of the ratio of global trade to GDP has been cause for some concern that global trade has peaked, and that we are now reaching a new normal in which trade levels will be weak in comparison to about a decade ago. Whether such a peak in trade was a defining moment in global trade or whether it is a cyclical phenomenon is one of the questions this eBook addresses.
Wisconsin Downturn?
In Down, Down, Down, I noted Wisconsin’s three month downward trend in nonfarm payroll and private nonfarm payroll employment, and as I cautioned, even this level of employment would likely be further downward revised when the QCEW data were incorporated in the next benchmark. The household survey based data released by the BLS adds yet more confirmation of a decrease in employment (h/t GeoffT). Monday’s newly released Philadelphia Fed coincident indices reflect those labor market trends.
Renegotiating Greece’s debt
Here are my thoughts on options for handling Greece’s debt.
Continue reading
Using QCEW Data to Estimate NFP in Wisconsin
Wisconsin released Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) data yesterday (as well as nonfarm payroll employment (NFP)) [1] [2]. We can use these data to update the estimate of nonfarm payroll employment (which is important given concerns about the accuracy of the establishment survey based series). Doing so worsens the employment performance through 2014.
Down, Down, Down
Wisconsin employment in May. (Update 6/23 to include growth decomposition)
“Answering the TPA Critics Head-On”
Today we are fortunate to have a guest contribution written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor of Capital Formation and Growth at Harvard University, and former Member of the Council of Economic Advisers, 1997-99.
New Gross State Product Figures Reveal…Wisconsin (Still) Lags
Some individuals have questioned the accuracy of the Philadelphia Fed coincident indices as measures of economic activity. Recently released Gross State Product (GSP) data confirms the pattern previously identified: Wisconsin lags the Nation, and its neighbor Minnesota. Thank goodness for Kansas to make Wisconsin look good!
“A Program for Greece: Follow the IMF’s Research”
Today, we are fortunate to present a guest contribution written by Ashoka Mody, Charles and Marie Visiting Professor in International Economic Policy, Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University. Previously, he was Deputy Director in the International Monetary Fund’s Research and European Departments.