Chapters 1 and 2 of the IMF World Economic Outlook were released today.
Update on the UK Recovery
From the The Courier, “Osborne defends austerity measures”:
George Osborne, who has announced plans for a further £3.2 billion squeeze on welfare bill which will hit 10 million of the unemployed and working poor, warned they would be among the ones who would “suffer the most” if there was another crisis.
Robust Employment Growth
That’s the message from the BLS today.
Kansas: Continued Budget Hemorrhaging
With lagging economic growth, and the massive tax cuts, revenues are falling below projection. From The Topeka Capital Journal today:
Tax collections by Kansas state government in September fell a sobering $21 million below projections to mark the fourth time in the past six months revenue failed to match targets, officials said Tuesday.
IMF World Economic Outlook: “Are Global Imbalances at a Turning Point?”
From Chapter 4 of the IMF’s World Economic Outlook, released today:
A Fiscal Tale of Two States: Minnesota vs. Wisconsin
The two neighboring states of Wisconsin and Minnesota share a similar economic structure and size; and yet their fortunes have diverged over the past three years. One correlate of Wisconsin’s growth deficit is state and local government spending.
Thank Goodness Wisconsin Turned Down High Speed Rail!
From “Fast trains, supply networks, and firm performance” in VoxEU:
We find that sales and measured productivity rose substantially for firms near the new (high speed rail) stations after the opening. Firms in industries with greater purchased input shares outperformed firms in industries with lower purchased input shares.
So Wisconsin dodged the fate of having higher firm productivity.
The report is authored by Bernard, Moxnes, and Saito.
Update, 10/1 12:26PM Pacific: And here is the IMF’s assessment of the role of infrastructure investment. Not that I expect it to convince all the folks who think we should privatize all roads, airports, harbors, and train service…
The Rising Dollar and Macroeconomic and Policy Prospects
From Buoyant Dollar Recovers Its Luster, Underlining Rebound in U.S. Economy in today’s NY Times:
The United States dollar, after one of its most prolonged weak spells ever, has now re-emerged as the preferred currency for global investors. Across trading desks in New York, London and elsewhere, analysts are rushing to raise their dollar forecasts based on the resurgence in the American economy.
Interpreting the Yield Curve: Some Pictures
Recently Jim highlighted the odd behavior of the various Treasury term premia. Here are some additional thoughts.
First, from “Debt market goes off script” in the WSJ:
Economic Portents – Kansas
Here are some economic indicators for Kansas; they indicate rising GDP but stalling real personal income (through 2014Q1), stagnant employment growth, with manufacturing employment deviating from national trends.