(Updated 10/6)
Four business days into the shutdown, and we have already exceeded in length 90% of the government-wide shutdowns that have occurred. What is the macro impact? In an accounting sense, by end-of-Monday, the impact should be to shave off 0.2 ppts of 2013Q4 q/q annualized growth.
[This empty webpage brought to you courtesy of the House of Representatives]
Lots of pooh-poohing of the implications of a debt-ceiling crisis. It’s instructive to examine what happened to equity markets when we last came close to a breach, but the Government didn’t actually default.
From Alec Phillips/Goldman Sachs today (not online):
…the Treasury bill market is clearly indicating concern about upcoming debt ceiling deadlines …
A snapshot for those who argue that policy uncertainty is slowing down the economy.
Those of us who believed that the Fed’s program of large-scale asset purchases had only a modest effect on long-term interest rates seem to have some explaining to do.
From WSJ, a picture of rising risk perception surrounding a debt ceiling crisis:
Makes little impact on trend relative to promise, and relative to the Nation
From Ed (We Are Not in a Recession) Lazear and Keith Hennessey, “Bush ended financial crisis before Obama took office — three important truths about 2008”, FoxNews (9/16):