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Econbrowser

Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

Each Time I Read Something Out of WMC, I Experience Cognitive Dissonance

From the just-released Summer WMC Wisconsin Employer Survey:

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This entry was posted on August 6, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

GDPNow vs. WSJ July Forecast

From Atlanta Fed today, 2.9% SAAR in Q3:

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This entry was posted on August 6, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Recession Predictions from Six Months Ago

From a February 1st post:

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This entry was posted on August 6, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Recession Indicator Sit-Rep

NBER BCDC key indicators, alternative indicators, weekly indicators:

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This entry was posted on August 6, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Weekly Business Cycle Indicators – Data through 7/27

From the Lewis, Mertens, Stock NY Fed WEI, and the Baumeister, Leiva-Leon, Sims Economic Conditions Index:

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This entry was posted on August 5, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Bitcoin as Store of Value

Bitcoin vs. VIX:

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This entry was posted on August 5, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Fed Funds Path as of Noon ET

From CME:

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This entry was posted on August 5, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Who Better Predicted the Transitory Inflation Surge of 2021-24?

Consumers, CEO’s, or economists?

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This entry was posted on August 4, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Three Episodes of the Sahm Rule Triggered

Recent vs. 2008 and 2001 recessions.

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This entry was posted on August 3, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

An Eventful Week – Interest Rates

10 year Treasury yields are down 40 bps over the week.

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This entry was posted on August 2, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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Current Indicators

Econbrowser faces the data: (since Apr 30,2025)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 6.8 (describes  2024:Q4)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

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