From PredictIt, just one hour into the debate:
On WisconsinEye: “The Economy on the Campaign Trail”
Mike Knetter and I joined Lisa Pugh for a conversation yesterday about the economy and the election. Here’s the video:
Betting on Recession? Literally…
A Known Known: Which Presidential Proposals Would Be Implemented
Apologies to Donald Rumsfeld. There is some uncertainty regarding what parts of presidential proposals will be implemented, especially in light of the necessity for Congressional approval. However, one area where legislative approval is not required: tariffs
How’s Wisconsin Employment Doing?
July was down, and we won’t have August numbers until September 20th (maybe a day earlier from DWD). Using official nationwide nonfarm payroll employment, Wisconsin employment is growing.
Nowcasts – Updated
GDPNow Q3 growth nowcast now up to 2.5%, from 2.1%.
If You *Really* Are Worried about Federal Debt Accumulation…
Consider this graph (based on Penn Wharton Budget Model scoring, from the Economist):
Choi, Dang, Kirpalani, Perez on “Exorbitant privilege and the sustainability of US public debt”
From the paper abstract:
When Did the Debt-to-GDP Ratio Jump in the Last Decade?
Federal debt held by the public as a share of GDP:
Reminder: Wisconsin Exports under Trump
If you forgot what the trade landscape looked like — and how Trump’s policies impacted Wisconsin — here’s a picture of Wisconsin real exports during and after (was thinking about this, prepping for WisconsinEye show tomorrow, where Mike Knetter will be talking).