Doing a great imitation of Neville Chamberlain.
“Sectoral debt and global dollar cycles in developing economies”
On Zoom, presentation by Joshua Aizenman of paper coauthored with Bada Han, Rashad Ahmed, and Yothin Jinjarak.
Funniest Thing I Have Heard this Year: Wilbur Ross on Trump’s Trade Policy Success
Just heard Wilbur Ross say on Bloomberg (roughly 3:35 ET) “The President was serious about fixing the balance of payments problem of the US”. I laughed and laughed and laughed. Maybe he was determined, but he had, like Peter Navarro, no clue about how to do it.
News Impact Illustrated: Jobs, CPI, PPI Releases
Following up on the PPI release (discussed along with other core measures) discussed here, how have markets responded, in terms of Fed funds futures, the ten year rate?
All Down: Instantaneous Core Inflation Measures for May
Core PPI under consensus (0% vs. +0.3% m/m).
Misery and Modified Misery
Conventional and Instantaneous
Futures vs. SEP on the Fed Funds Rate Trajectory
Here’s a picture of the Fed funds pre- and post-CPI release/FOMC SEP:
FT-Booth School and FOMC GDP Forecasts
The survey indicates 2.0% median growth q4/q4, not far from June SEP at 2.1% (unchanged from March).
Year-on-Year and Instantaneous Inflation in May; Food Prices Declining
Headline and core surprise on the downside: m/m 0.2% vs. 0.3% consensus, and 0.0% vs 0.1% consensus, respectively. More interestingly, Cleveland Fed core CPI nowcast for May m/m was 0.30%, actual was 0.16%.
GDP, GDO, GDP+
All have a positive gradient in Q1.