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Econbrowser

Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

Business Cycle Indicators, Mid-June

Industrial production surprises on upside (0.9% vs. 0.3% m/m), while nominal retail sales increase modestly (0.1 actual vs. 0.3% consensus).

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This entry was posted on June 18, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Guest Contribution: “The Federal Funds Rate: FOMC Projections, Policy Rule Prescriptions, and Futures Market Probabilities from the June 2024 Meeting”

Today, we present a guest post written by David Papell and Ruxandra Prodan-Boul, Professor of Economics at the University of Houston and Economics Lecturer at Stanford University.


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This entry was posted on June 17, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

How Fast Is Nonfarm Payroll Employment Rising?

With the release of the Philadelphia Fed early benchmark, we have the following 12 month changes in employment (000’s) from different sources:

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This entry was posted on June 15, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Senator Theoden* on ZeroHedge Debate on X Spaces

Doing a great imitation of Neville Chamberlain.

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This entry was posted on June 13, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

“Sectoral debt and global dollar cycles in developing economies”

On Zoom, presentation by Joshua Aizenman of paper coauthored with Bada Han, Rashad Ahmed, and Yothin Jinjarak.

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This entry was posted on June 13, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Funniest Thing I Have Heard this Year: Wilbur Ross on Trump’s Trade Policy Success

Just heard Wilbur Ross say on Bloomberg (roughly 3:35 ET) “The President was serious about fixing the balance of payments problem of the US”. I laughed and laughed and laughed. Maybe he was determined, but he had, like Peter Navarro, no clue about how to do it.

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This entry was posted on June 13, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

News Impact Illustrated: Jobs, CPI, PPI Releases

Following up on the PPI release (discussed along with other core measures) discussed here, how have markets responded, in terms of Fed funds futures, the ten year rate?

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This entry was posted on June 13, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

All Down: Instantaneous Core Inflation Measures for May

Core PPI under consensus (0% vs. +0.3% m/m).

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This entry was posted on June 13, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Misery and Modified Misery

Conventional and Instantaneous

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This entry was posted on June 13, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Futures vs. SEP on the Fed Funds Rate Trajectory

Here’s a picture of the Fed funds pre- and post-CPI release/FOMC SEP:

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This entry was posted on June 12, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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Recent Posts

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  • Real Time Civilian Employment past Peak?
  • The Age of Angst? Macro Implications
  • Trade Policy Uncertainty before July 9
  • Manufacturing Employment, Hours Down

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Current Indicators

Econbrowser faces the data: (since Apr 30,2025)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 6.8 (describes  2024:Q4)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

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