We have plenty of competing assessments as of today. From three Federal Reserve Banks and Goldman Sachs.
EJ Antoni/Heritage on What Unemployment Rate We Should Be Looking At
EJ Antoni/Heritage writes alarmingly about how excluding marginally attached workers from the calculation of unemployment is misleading:
Kudlow: “We Are in the Front End of a Recession”
Audio here, at 2:30 approximately. He also says private NFP gain is down to +56K, while private ex-health care and social services (all essentially government), was only up +12K. Here’s the picture I get looking at current vintage/latest release:
The Ito-McCauley Database on Individual Central Bank Reserve Holdings
Hiro Ito and Robert McCauley have compiled a dataset(first discussed in this 2019 working paper) of the currency composition of international reserves over the 1999-2021 period. This dataset was used in Ito and McCauley (2020), Chinn, Ito and McCauley (2022), and Chinn, Ito and Frankel (2024).
Goldman Sachs on the Post-Election Economy
From Alec Phillips, David Mericle and Tim Krupa (Goldman Sachs, 3 September 2024):
Business Cycle Indicators and the Employment Release
Employment growth is slowing. Even taking the preliminary benchmark at face value, we’re not in recession as of mid-August (when the survey is taken).
Employment Slowdown in Context
NFP +142 vs. consensus +166. Employment has almost surely slowed (keeping in mind this is the preliminary release). What does this look like?
A Puzzle: Private NFP and the Preliminary Benchmark vs. Current Official [updated]
The puzzle remains: despite an under-consensus 99K addition to private ADP-Stanford NFP (far below consensus 144K). ADP cumulative change above CES cumulative change, while preliminary benchmark is below.
Peter Schiff on Recession
Peter Schiff today:
This morning has seen a trifecta of weak economic data. Aug. PMI & ISM manufacturing both came out even weaker than expected, while July construction spending unexpectedly fell. It’s becoming clear the #economy is entering a #recession just as #inflation is poised to turn higher.
Business Cycle Indicators as of September’s Start
Including monthly GDP out today from S&P Global Market Insights, and preliminary benchmark NFP: