More to come on how to think about the various tariffs (which seem to come under various authorities, including Sec. 232, Sec. 301, countervailing duties, etc., the White House statement doesn’t spell it all out) in a bit. But first, some slides covering nuances of trade policy (not even thinking about national security issues) from my 2022 trade policy class.
Friends Don’t Let Friends Think Only Bivariately
On thinking about today’s CPI numbers:
Instantaneous Core Inflation Drops, Core CPI Level below Consensus
From the CPI release today.
When a Purported Policy Analyst Writes: “Does a confidence interval … change what you would have done or should do? If it doesn’t, then it’s a mere artefact, a curiosity, but of no use to people making real world decisions”
You should run away from that “policy analyst” as fast as you can. The above is a quote from Steven Kopits, who styles himself a policy analyst. His entire comment is here.
Russia Thanks MTG, RoJo and Everybody Else Who Held Up the Foreign Military Assistance Bill
From MilitaryLand and ISW, accessed today:
Manufacturing over the Long Term
Reader Bruce Hall wishes for any discussion of the impact of trade policies include displays of the manufacturing sector’s progress, over the maximally long period. Here, without further ado, is what I could gather quickly.
Currency Misalignment Measured Assuming a Balanced Financial Account
The Coalition for a Prosperous America and the Blue Collar Dollar Institute have developed a measure of currency misalignment, reported in their latest Currency Misalignment Monitor (April issue).
How Not to Estimate Losses from Climatic Disasters
In re: Hurricane Maria, what do we know a bit over five years later?
Maury Obstfeld: “Trump’s plans for the Fed and the dollar are a one-way ticket back to the inflationary chaos of the 1970s.”
Maury Obstfeld at PS says it better than I ever did (along with the best graphic *ever*):
“Is the Boom-and-Bust Business Cycle Dead?”
That’ s leading question in the NYT a little while back (just getting to this now that I’ve finished grading).